Research Center for Agricultural Information Technology, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, 2-14-1 Kowa-Nishi-Shimbashi Building, Nishi-Shimbashi, Minato, Tokyo, 105-0003, Japan.
Institute of Livestock and Grassland Science, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, 2, Ikenodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-0901, Japan.
Sci Rep. 2024 Sep 18;14(1):21748. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-72521-w.
In dairy farming, the uncertainty of cow calving date often imposes waiting costs for days on farmers. Improving the accuracy of calving date prediction would mitigate these costs, specifically before a few days of the event. We monitored and analyzed the heart rate patterns of eight pregnant cows in the days leading up to calving using a dedicated monitoring device. We decomposed the heart rate data into three distinct components: trend, daily cycle, and the remainder, and discovered that the heart rate trend exhibited a sharp decline more than 40 h before the calving event via the trend turning point. To detect the turning point, we applied common financial technical indicators traditionally used to identify turning points of asset prices in trading markets for the extracted heart rate trend. This study remains a feasibility study because of the limited observations, but it indicates that these indicators can effectively capture the trend's turning point in real time, offering a promising approach for enhanced calving prediction. In addition to discussing the practical implications for cow management, we also contemplate the broader utility of these technical indicators in the context of various dynamic scientific data analyses.
在奶牛养殖中，奶牛分娩日期的不确定性常常给农民带来数天的等待成本。提高分娩日期预测的准确性可以减轻这些成本，特别是在事件发生前几天。我们使用专用监测设备监测并分析了八头怀孕奶牛在分娩前几天的心率模式。我们将心率数据分解为三个不同的成分：趋势、日常周期和剩余部分，发现心率趋势在分娩事件前超过 40 小时通过趋势转折点急剧下降。为了检测转折点，我们应用了常见的金融技术指标，这些指标通常用于识别交易市场中资产价格的转折点，用于提取的心率趋势。由于观察数量有限，本研究仍然是一项可行性研究，但它表明这些指标可以有效地实时捕捉趋势的转折点，为增强分娩预测提供了一种有前途的方法。除了讨论对奶牛管理的实际意义外，我们还考虑了这些技术指标在各种动态科学数据分析中的更广泛应用。
