Núñez Mejía Santiago, Villegas-Lituma Carina, Crespo Patricio, Córdova Mario, Gualán Ronald, Ochoa Johanna, Guzmán Pablo, Ballari Daniela, Chávez Alexis, Mendoza Paz Santiago, Willems Patrick, Ochoa-Sánchez Ana
TRACES & Faculty of Science and Technology, Universidad del Azuay, Av. 24 de Mayo 7-77 y Hernán Malo, Cuenca, Ecuador.
Department of Water Resources and Environmental Sciences, University of Cuenca, Cuenca, Ecuador.
Environ Evid. 2023 Dec 12;12(1):29. doi: 10.1186/s13750-023-00323-0.
Global warming and climate change are threats to the world. Warmer temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns alter water availability and increase the occurrence of extreme weather events. South America and the Andes are vulnerable regions to climate change due to inequity and the uneven distribution of resources. Climate change evaluation often relies on the use of general circulation models (GCMs). However, the spatial resolution is too coarse and does not provide a realistic climate representation at a local level. This is of particular importance in mountain areas such as the Andes range, where the heterogeneous topography requires a finer spatial resolution to represent the local physical processes. To this end, statistical and/or dynamical downscaling methods are required. Several approaches and applications of downscaling procedures have been carried out in the countries of this region, with different purposes and performances. However, the main objective is to improve the representation of meteorological variables such as precipitation and temperature. A systematic review of these downscaling applications will identify the performance of the methods applied in the Andes region for the downscaling of precipitation and temperature. In addition, the meta-analysis could detect factors influencing the performance. The overall goal is to highlight promising methods in terms of fitness for use and identify knowledge gaps in the region.
The review will search and examine published and grey literature on downscaling applications of temperature and precipitation in the Andes region. Predetermined criteria for eligibility will allow the screening of the evidence. Then, the method used in each application will be coded and mapped according to the country, purpose, variable, and type of downscaling. At the same time, quantitative and qualitative data will be extracted. The performance metrics are particularly interesting for this review. A meta-analysis will be conducted for those studies with comparable metrics. A narrative synthesis, maps and heatmaps will show the results. Tables, funnel plots, and meta-regressions will present the meta-analysis. Throughout the review, a critical appraisal step will categorize the validity of the evidence.
全球变暖和气候变化对世界构成威胁。气温升高和降水模式变化改变了水资源可利用性，并增加了极端天气事件的发生频率。由于资源分配不均，南美洲和安第斯地区是气候变化的脆弱区域。气候变化评估通常依赖于通用循环模型（GCMs）。然而，其空间分辨率太粗糙，无法在局部层面提供真实的气候表征。这在安第斯山脉等山区尤为重要，因为其地形异质性需要更精细的空间分辨率来呈现当地的物理过程。为此，需要统计和/或动力降尺度方法。该地区各国已开展了多种降尺度程序的方法和应用，目的和表现各不相同。然而，主要目标是改善降水和温度等气象变量的表征。对这些降尺度应用进行系统综述将确定安第斯地区用于降水和温度降尺度的方法的性能。此外，荟萃分析可以检测影响性能的因素。总体目标是突出适用性方面有前景的方法，并识别该地区的知识空白。
该综述将搜索和审查关于安第斯地区温度和降水降尺度应用的已发表文献和灰色文献。预定的纳入标准将用于筛选证据。然后，将根据国家、目的、变量和降尺度类型对每个应用中使用的方法进行编码和映射。同时，将提取定量和定性数据。性能指标对本综述尤为重要。将对具有可比指标的研究进行荟萃分析。叙述性综合、地图和热图将展示结果。表格、漏斗图和荟萃回归将呈现荟萃分析。在整个综述过程中，关键评估步骤将对证据的有效性进行分类。
