Schulze Spuentrup Selina
ifo Institute, Dresden, Germany.
TUD Dresden University of Technology, Dresden, Germany.
Eur J Health Econ. 2025 Jun;26(4):541-560. doi: 10.1007/s10198-024-01716-9. Epub 2024 Sep 20.
In light of the persistent shortage of organ donations needed to save precious human lives, several countries have modified their organ donation laws by introducing an opt-out system, making every deceased a potential organ donor unless the person has objected. This study examines the impact of adopting opt-out on organ donation rates. Using a panel dataset covering a 21-year period, I apply a synthetic control approach to focus on countries that changed their prevailing organ donation legislation from opt-in to opt-out. I compare them to a synthetic counterfactual from countries that have kept their legislation the same since 1999. Synthetic control estimates show that Argentina and Wales achieved substantially higher organ donation rates with the shift from an opt-in to an opt-out system than without the reform taking place. My findings suggest that as one strategy among others, implementing opt-out cannot solve the organ shortage problem entirely but effectively contributes to reducing it considerably.
鉴于拯救宝贵生命所需的器官捐赠持续短缺，一些国家通过引入退出系统修改了器官捐赠法律，使每个死者都成为潜在的器官捐赠者，除非该人提出反对。本研究考察了采用退出系统对器官捐赠率的影响。利用一个涵盖21年的面板数据集，我采用合成控制法，重点关注那些将现行器官捐赠立法从选择加入改为退出的国家。我将它们与自1999年以来立法保持不变的国家的合成反事实进行比较。合成控制估计表明，阿根廷和威尔士从选择加入系统转变为退出系统后，器官捐赠率大幅提高，高于未进行改革的情况。我的研究结果表明，作为众多策略之一，实施退出系统不能完全解决器官短缺问题，但能有效大幅减少这一问题。
