Enhanced machine learning models for predicting one-year mortality in individuals suffering from type A aortic dissection.

OBJECTIVE

The study objective was to develop and validate an interpretable machine learning model to predict 1-year mortality in patients with type A aortic dissection, improving risk classification and aiding clinical decision-making.

METHODS

We enrolled 289 patients with type A aortic dissection, dividing them into a training cohort (202 patients) and a validation cohort (87 patients). The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator method with 10-fold cross-validation identified 8 key factors related to 1-year mortality. The Treebag model's performance was assessed using accuracy, F1-Score, Brier score, area under the curve, and area under the precision-recall curve with calibration and clinical utility evaluated through decision curves. Shapley Additive Explanations analysis determined the most influential predictors.

RESULTS

The Treebag model outperformed others, achieving a Brier score of 0.128 and an area under the curve of 0.91. Key risk factors included older age and elevated white blood cell count, whereas higher systolic blood pressure, lymphocyte, carbon dioxide combining power, eosinophil, β-receptor blocker use, and surgical intervention were protective. A web-based application, TAAD One-Year Prognostic Risk Assessment Web, was developed for clinical use (available at https://taad-1year-mortality-predictor.streamlit.app/). This platform allows for the prediction of 1-year mortality in patients with type A aortic dissection based on the identified predictive factors, facilitating clinical decision-making and patient management.

CONCLUSIONS

The Treebag machine learning model effectively predicts 1-year mortality in patients with type A aortic dissection, stratifying risk profiles. Key factors for enhancing survival include surgical intervention, β-blocker administration, and management of systolic blood pressure, lymphocyte, carbon dioxide combining power, eosinophil, and white blood cell levels, offering a valuable tool for improving patient outcomes.