Department of Geography and Environment, Jagannath University, Dhaka, 1100, Bangladesh.
Environ Monit Assess. 2024 Sep 21;196(10):964. doi: 10.1007/s10661-024-13118-8.
Uncontrolled human activity and nature are causing the deterioration of Saint Martin Island, Bangladesh's only tropical island, necessitating sustainable land use strategies and ecological practices. Therefore, the present study measures the land use/cover transition from 1974 to 2021, predicts 2032 and 2042, and constructs the spatiotemporal features of the Landscape Ecological Risk Index based on land use changes. The study utilized Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC) on Landsat images from 1974, 1988, 2001, 2013, and Sentinel 2B in 2021, achieving ≥ 80% accuracy. The MLP-MC approach was also used to predict 2032 and 2042 LULC change patterns. The eco-risk index was developed using landscape disturbance and vulnerability indices, Bayesian Kriging interpolation, and spatial autocorrelations to indicate spatial clustering. The research found that settlements increased from 2.06 to 28.62 ha between 1974 and 2021 and would cover 41.22 ha in 2042, causing considerable losses in agricultural areas, waterbodies, sand, coral reefs, and vegetation. The area under study showed a more uniform and homogenous environment as Shannon's diversity and evenness scores decreased. The ecological risk of Saint Martin Island increased from 4.31 to 31.05 ha between 1974 and 2042 due to natural and human factors like erosion, tidal bores, population growth, coral mining, habitat destruction, and intensive agricultural practices and tourism, primarily in Nazrul Para, Galachipa, and Western Dakhin Para. The findings will benefit St. Martin Island stakeholders and policymakers by providing insights into current and potential landscape changes and land eco-management.
人类活动的失控和自然因素正在导致孟加拉国唯一的热带岛屿圣马丁岛退化，因此需要采取可持续的土地利用策略和生态实践。本研究旨在测量 1974 年至 2021 年期间的土地利用/覆盖变化，预测 2032 年和 2042 年的土地利用/覆盖变化，并基于土地利用变化构建景观生态风险指数的时空特征。研究利用 1974 年、1988 年、2001 年、2013 年和 2021 年的 Landsat 图像以及 Sentinel 2B 的最大似然分类（MLC），获得了≥80%的准确率。还使用 MLP-MC 方法预测了 2032 年和 2042 年的土地利用/覆盖变化模式。利用景观干扰和脆弱性指数、贝叶斯克里金插值和空间自相关来开发生态风险指数，以指示空间聚类。研究发现，1974 年至 2021 年期间，定居点从 2.06 公顷增加到 28.62 公顷，到 2042 年将覆盖 41.22 公顷，这将导致农业区、水体、沙滩、珊瑚礁和植被的大量损失。研究区域的 Shannon 多样性和均匀度得分下降，表明环境更加均匀和同质。由于侵蚀、潮涌、人口增长、珊瑚开采、栖息地破坏以及密集的农业和旅游活动等自然和人为因素，圣马丁岛的生态风险从 1974 年的 4.31 公顷增加到 2042 年的 31.05 公顷，主要在 Nazrul Para、Galachipa 和 Western Dakhin Para。这些发现将为圣马丁岛的利益相关者和决策者提供帮助，使他们了解当前和潜在的景观变化和土地生态管理。
