Adrian Molly, James Kiera M, Gallop Robert, Chu Phuonguyen V, Vander Stoep Ann, McCauley Elizabeth
Arch Suicide Res. 2024 Sep 27:1-17. doi: 10.1080/13811118.2024.2403491.
Understanding patterns of suicide risk over the course of development can aid our ability to prevent suicide. Our community-based study examined changes in suicide risk status and predictors of changes in risk status in a sample of 521 adolescents over six assessments between the start of middle school and young adulthood (ages 12-22).
Suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STB) were measured with the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children and the Moods and Feelings Questionnaire. Latent transition analysis (LTA) was utilized to evaluate transitions in suicide risk status over the course of development. Nine risk factors' initial values and change over time were modeled as predictors in the LTA.
Latent class analysis identified a four-class model of developmental suicide risk patterns: Class 1: Infrequent STB (73-87% of participants), Class 2: Diminishing STB (1-17% of participants), Class 3: Escalating STB (6-16% of participants), and Class 4: Consistently High STB (1-5% of participants). LTA demonstrated that infrequent STB members and escalating STB members were likely to maintain their risk class across time points.
Classification of STB trajectories demonstrated self-worth and family involvement were salient variables affecting transitions in risk over time and suggest prevention targets early in adolescence that could have impact on suicide risk in adulthood.
了解自杀风险在整个发育过程中的模式有助于我们预防自杀的能力。我们基于社区的研究在521名青少年样本中进行了六次评估，从初中开始到青年期（12 - 22岁），考察了自杀风险状态的变化以及风险状态变化的预测因素。
使用儿童诊断访谈量表和情绪与情感问卷来测量自杀想法和行为（STB）。利用潜在转变分析（LTA）来评估整个发育过程中自杀风险状态的转变。九个风险因素的初始值及其随时间的变化被建模为LTA中的预测因素。
潜在类别分析确定了一个发育性自杀风险模式的四类模型：第1类：不常出现STB（73 - 87%的参与者），第2类：STB减少（1 - 17%的参与者），第3类：STB增加（6 - 16%的参与者），第4类：持续高STB（1 - 5%的参与者）。LTA表明，不常出现STB的成员和STB增加的成员在各时间点可能保持其风险类别。
STB轨迹的分类表明自我价值和家庭参与是影响风险随时间转变的显著变量，并建议在青春期早期确定预防目标，这可能对成年期的自杀风险产生影响。
