Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics and Public Health Group, World Organisation for Animal Health Collaborating Centre for Risk Analysis and Modelling Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences, Royal Veterinary College (RVC), London, United Kingdom; Avian Influenza and Newcastle Disease Group, The Pirbright Institute, Woking, United Kingdom; Institute of Microbiology, University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences Lahore, Pakistan.
Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics and Public Health Group, World Organisation for Animal Health Collaborating Centre for Risk Analysis and Modelling Department of Pathobiology and Population Sciences, Royal Veterinary College (RVC), London, United Kingdom.
Prev Vet Med. 2024 Dec;233:106346. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2024.106346. Epub 2024 Sep 20.
Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza (LPAI) subtype H9N2 is endemic in Pakistan and impacts poultry farming through disease related mortality, poor weight gain and reduced egg production. This study aims to estimate the farm-level financial impact of LPAI H9N2 infection on commercial broiler and layer production systems in Pakistan. A questionnaire based cross-sectional survey of 138 broiler farms and 136 layer farms in Pakistan was conducted in 2019. Primary data collected by cross-sectional survey along with expert opinion and published literature were used to parameterize five stochastic production and gross margin models for three broiler and two layer production systems: fully integrated production (FIP), partially integrated production (PIP) and independent farming production (IP) systems. Partial budget analysis were then carried out to estimate the financial impact of LPAI H9N2. Results indicate that in broiler production systems, starting with 35,000 day old chicks (DOC) per batch, the net cost of disease (million PKR/production cycle) was estimated at 4.10 (14,862 USD), 4.62 (16,747 USD) and 2.46 (8917 USD) for IP, PIP and FIP systems, respectively. The disease produced a negative gross margin (defined here as revenue minus replacement and variable costs) in IP (-53 PKR (-0.19 USD)/DOC bought) and PI (-25 PKR (-0.091 USD)/DOC bought) systems, while remained positive for FIP systems (87 PKR (0.32 USD)/DOC bought). For layer production systems, (mean flock size as 48,000 DOCs) the net cost (million PKR/production cycle) was 29.75 (107,095.21 USD) and 29.51 (106,223.45 USD) IP and PIP systems, respectively, and produced negative gross margin in both systems. The outcomes of the study highlight the vulnerability of independent and partially integrated production systems to the disease. These findings also offer a decision-making tool to the farmers and policy makers to evaluate avian influenza surveillance systems and control interventions in Pakistan.
低致病性禽流感（LPAI）H9N2 亚型在巴基斯坦流行，通过与疾病相关的死亡率、体重增加不良和产蛋量减少，对家禽养殖造成影响。本研究旨在评估 LPAI H9N2 感染对巴基斯坦商业肉鸡和蛋鸡生产系统的农场层面经济影响。2019 年在巴基斯坦进行了一项基于问卷的横断面调查，涉及 138 个肉鸡场和 136 个蛋鸡场。通过横断面调查收集的主要数据以及专家意见和已发表的文献被用于为三种肉鸡和两种蛋鸡生产系统的五个随机生产和总利润模型进行参数化：完全集成生产（FIP）、部分集成生产（PIP）和独立养殖生产（IP）系统。然后进行部分预算分析以估计 LPAI H9N2 的财务影响。结果表明，在肉鸡生产系统中，以每批 35000 只日龄雏鸡（DOC）开始，疾病的净成本（百万巴基斯坦卢比/生产周期）估计分别为 IP 系统 4.10（14862 美元）、PIP 系统 4.62（16747 美元）和 FIP 系统 2.46（8917 美元）。该疾病在 IP（-53 巴基斯坦卢比（-0.19 美元）/购买的 DOC）和 PI（-25 巴基斯坦卢比（-0.091 美元）/购买的 DOC）系统中产生了负总利润（这里定义为收入减去替代和可变成本），而在 FIP 系统中仍为正（87 巴基斯坦卢比（0.32 美元）/购买的 DOC）。对于蛋鸡生产系统（平均鸡群规模为 48000 只 DOC），净成本（百万巴基斯坦卢比/生产周期）分别为 IP 和 PIP 系统的 29.75（107095.21 美元）和 29.51（106223.45 美元），两个系统均产生负总利润。该研究的结果突出了独立和部分集成生产系统对该疾病的脆弱性。这些结果还为农民和决策者提供了一个决策工具，以评估巴基斯坦的禽流感监测系统和控制干预措施。
