Yang Yang, Zhu David Z, Loewen Mark R, Zhang Wenming, van Duin Bert, Mahmood Khizar
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB T6G 1H9, Canada.
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB T6G 1H9, Canada; School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ningbo University, Zhejiang 315211, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2024 Dec 1;954:176439. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176439. Epub 2024 Sep 26.
Climate change poses significant challenges to urban environments affecting both flood risks and stormwater pollutant loadings. However, studies on variations in stormwater runoff quantity and quality in cold regions, which are highly sensitive to climate change, are notably limited. Integrating climatic, hydrologic, and hydraulic modelling, the study assesses the potential impacts of climate change on stormwater runoff volume and pollutant dynamics in a Canadian urban watershed (Calgary). A two-year field program was conducted to support the calibration and validation of the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Intensity-duration-frequency curves were employed to evaluate the impacts of climate change on peak flow rate and flooding duration. In addition, typical dry, average, and wet years were applied to continuously simulate stormwater runoff quantity and quality during the 2050s and 2080s. The results suggest substantial increases in peak flow rates and flooding durations, particularly for the 5-year return period rainfall, with 1-h, 4-h, and 24-h peak inflow rates increasing by 74.3% (170.7%), 89.2% (158.4%), and 64.1% (102.8%) in the 2050s (2080s) Furthermore, the runoff quantity is projected to rise by 2.4-10.2% in the 2050s and 11.8-17.5% in the 2080s. Total suspended solids (TSS), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) loadings are anticipated to increase by 2.0-36.1%, 3.1-21.4%, and 4.1-20.7%, respectively. As a result, the current stormwater system could overload and stormwater quality is likely to deteriorate under the impact of climate change. The findings are beneficial for cold regions to develop adaptive strategies that enhance urban water security and environmental sustainability under climate change.
气候变化给城市环境带来了重大挑战，影响着洪水风险和雨水污染物负荷。然而，对于对气候变化高度敏感的寒冷地区雨水径流量和水质变化的研究却极为有限。该研究整合了气候、水文和水力模型，评估了气候变化对加拿大一个城市流域（卡尔加里）雨水径流量和污染物动态的潜在影响。开展了一项为期两年的实地项目，以支持雨水管理模型（SWMM）的校准和验证。采用强度-历时-频率曲线来评估气候变化对峰值流速和洪水持续时间的影响。此外，运用典型干旱年、平均年和湿润年，对21世纪50年代和80年代的雨水径流量和水质进行连续模拟。结果表明，峰值流速和洪水持续时间大幅增加，特别是对于5年一遇的降雨，21世纪50年代（21世纪80年代）1小时、4小时和24小时的峰值入流率分别增加了74.3%（170.7%）、89.2%（158.4%）和64.1%（102.8%）。此外，预计21世纪50年代径流量将增加2.4%-10.2%，21世纪80年代将增加11.8%-17.5%。总悬浮固体（TSS）、总氮（TN）和总磷（TP）负荷预计将分别增加2.0%-36.1%、3.1%-21.4%和4.1%-20.7%。因此，在气候变化的影响下，当前的雨水系统可能会超载，雨水质量可能会恶化。这些研究结果有助于寒冷地区制定适应性策略，以增强气候变化下的城市水安全和环境可持续性。
