Warming-induced soil moisture stress threatens food security in India.

Soil moisture (SM) interconnects various components of the Earth system and drives the land-atmosphere feedbacks and food production. However, around 40% of global vegetated land experiences SM drying. India is one of the global hotspots of land-atmosphere interactions and an extensively agrarian economy, but underexplored in terms of SM dynamics and its ramifications on food security. Here, we examine the mechanism of SM drying and its implications on cropland productivity in India based on remote sensing measurements and land surface model simulations in recent decades (2000-2019) and future projection of the 21st century. We find SM reduction predominantly in monsoon (4.5%) and winter (3%) seasons that are in the major agricultural seasons of Kharif and Rabi, respectively. Machine learning (ML)-based random forest (RF) reveals that temperature (T, 30.76%) is the dominant driver of SM variability, and then precipitation (P, 26.34%), evapotranspiration (ET, 26.08%) and surface greenness (16.82%). Concurrently, India experiences severe warming in terms of land (0.59 ℃/dec), soil (0.48 ℃/dec) and soil heat flux (SHF, 0.16 W/m/dec) during 2000-2019. Partial correlation analysis between SM and T limiting the influence of P reveals a strong negative (> - 0.5) relationship in the agriculture intensive regions of Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) and South India (SI). Drying owing to warming and increased SHF, termed as warming-induced moisture stress, reduces gross primary productivity (GPP) (i.e. browning) and yield of major food crops of wheat, rain-fed rice, maize and soyabean, predominantly in SI and eastern IGP. Granger Causality shows that warming-induced soil moisture stress has a maximum temporal lag of 1 month. In a warming world, the ever-growing population demands more food, and therefore, the warming-induced soil moisture stress is a serious threat to food security in India and similar agro-climatic regions of the world. This calls for climate-resilient agriculture, better agronomic management, improved irrigation and adoption of water-efficient crops.