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气候变化对印度印度河恒河平原水稻和小麦水生产力和水足迹的潜在影响。

Potential impact of climate change on water productivity and water footprints of rice and wheat in the Indo-Gangetic plains of India.

机构信息

ICAR-Central Research Institute for Jute and Allied Fibre, Nilganj, Barrackpore, Kolkata, West Bengal, 700121, India.

Crop Production Division, ICAR-Central Research Institute for Jute and Allied Fibre, Nilganj, Barrackpore, Kolkata, 700121, West Bengal, India.

出版信息

Environ Monit Assess. 2024 Oct 24;196(11):1101. doi: 10.1007/s10661-024-13287-6.

Abstract

Agriculture faces a significant problem as a result of the decline in per capita freshwater supply that has been observed over the past couple of decades. Better water management strategies are required in order to make agriculture water secure, environmentally sustainable, and economically attractive. The goal of this study was to develop water productivity scenarios for rice and wheat crops in India's Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) by analysing agricultural production from the perspective of water consumption. To pinpoint the areas that are hydrologically suitable for growing rice and wheat crops under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios, water footprints and water productivity have been mapped. The study found that changes in temperature trends under future climate scenarios are probably going to increase crop water requirements, leading to greater water footprints for IGP regions. Water risk hotspots have been identified in the IGP for the rice- and wheat-growing states of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, and Haryana. In order to achieve food security in a sustainable way, attention should be given to increase the water productivity of both crops.

摘要

由于过去几十年人均淡水供应量的下降,农业面临着重大问题。需要更好的水资源管理策略,以使农业用水安全、环境可持续和经济有吸引力。本研究的目的是通过分析农业生产用水情况,为印度印度河恒河平原(IGP)的水稻和小麦作物制定水资源生产力情景。为了确定在 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 气候变化情景下,哪些地区在水文上适合种植水稻和小麦,本研究绘制了水资源足迹和水资源生产力图。研究发现,未来气候情景下温度趋势的变化可能会增加作物的需水量,导致 IGP 地区的水资源足迹增加。在 UP、Punjab 和 Haryana 等种植水稻和小麦的邦,已经确定了 IGP 的水风险热点地区。为了可持续地实现粮食安全,应关注提高这两种作物的水资源生产力。

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