Department of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205.
Division of Clinical Trials and Biostatistics, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL 32224.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2024 Oct 8;121(41):e2414957121. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2414957121. Epub 2024 Oct 1.
In the Spring of 2020, the United States of America (USA) deployed COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) to treat hospitalized patients. Over 500,000 patients were treated with CCP during the first year of the pandemic. In this study, we estimated the number of actual inpatient lives saved by CCP treatment in the United States of America based on CCP weekly use, weekly national mortality data, and CCP mortality reduction data from meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials and real-world data. We also estimate the potential number of lives saved if CCP had been deployed for 100% of hospitalized patients or used in 15 to 75% of outpatients. Depending on the assumptions modeled in stratified analyses, we estimated that CCP saved between 16,476 and 66,296 lives. The CCP ideal use might have saved as many as 234,869 lives and prevented 1,136,133 hospitalizations. CCP deployment was a successful strategy for ameliorating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA. This experience has important implications for convalescent plasma use in future infectious disease emergencies.
2020 年春季，美利坚合众国（USA）部署了 COVID-19 恢复期血浆（CCP）来治疗住院患者。在大流行的第一年，有超过 50 万名患者接受了 CCP 治疗。在这项研究中，我们根据 CCP 的每周使用量、每周全国死亡率数据以及来自随机对照试验和真实世界数据的荟萃分析的 CCP 死亡率降低数据，估算了 CCP 治疗在美国实际挽救的住院患者人数。我们还估算了如果将 CCP 用于 100%住院患者或用于 15%至 75%门诊患者时可能挽救的人数。根据分层分析中建模的假设，我们估计 CCP 挽救了 16476 至 66296 人的生命。CCP 的理想使用可能挽救了多达 234869 人的生命，并预防了 1136133 次住院。CCP 的部署是缓解美国 COVID-19 大流行影响的成功策略。这一经验对未来传染病紧急情况下使用恢复期血浆具有重要意义。
