加强艾滋病毒/性传播感染决策:为个人、医疗服务提供者和政策制定者利用预测模型面临的挑战与机遇。

Enhancing HIV/STI decision-making: challenges and opportunities in leveraging predictive models for individuals, healthcare providers, and policymakers.

作者信息

Chen Yijin, Yu Wei, Cai Lin, Liu Bingyang, Guo Fei

机构信息

Ningbo Institute of Innovation for Combined Medicine and Engineering (NIIME), The Affiliated Lihuili Hospital of Ningbo University, Ningbo, China.

出版信息

J Transl Med. 2024 Oct 1;22(1):886. doi: 10.1186/s12967-024-05684-9.

Abstract

The prevention and control of human immunodeficiency virus and sexually transmitted infections (HIV/STI) face challenges worldwide, especially in China. Prediction tools, which analyze medical data and information to make future predictions, were once mainly used in HIV/STI research to help make diagnostic or prognostic decisions, has have now extended to the public as a freely accessible tool. This article provides an overview of the different roles of prediction tools in preventing and controlling HIV/STI from the perspectives of individuals, healthcare providers, and policymakers. For individuals, prediction tools serve as a risk assessment solution that assess their risk and consciously improve risk reception or change risky behaviors. For researchers, prediction tools are powerful for assisting in identifying risk factors and predicting patients' infection risk, which can inform timely and accurate intervention planning in the future. In order to achieve the best performance, current research increasingly underscores the necessity of considering multiple levels of information, such as socio-behavioral data, in developing a robust prediction tool. In addition, it is also crucial to conduct trials in clinical settings to validate the effectiveness of prediction tools. Many studies only use theoretical parameters such as model accuracy to estimate its predictive. If these improvements are made, the application of prediction tools could be a potentially inspiring solution in the prevention and control of HIV/STI, and an opportunity for achieving the World Health Organization's agenda to end the HIV/STI epidemic by 2030.

摘要

人类免疫缺陷病毒和性传播感染(HIV/STI)的预防和控制在全球范围内面临挑战,在中国尤为如此。预测工具通过分析医学数据和信息来进行未来预测,曾主要用于HIV/STI研究以辅助做出诊断或预后决策,如今已作为一种可免费获取的工具向公众推广。本文从个人、医疗服务提供者和政策制定者的角度概述了预测工具在HIV/STI预防和控制中的不同作用。对于个人而言,预测工具是一种风险评估手段,可评估其风险并促使其自觉提高风险接受度或改变危险行为。对于研究人员来说,预测工具有助于识别风险因素并预测患者的感染风险,从而为未来及时、准确的干预计划提供依据。为了实现最佳性能,当前研究越来越强调在开发强大的预测工具时考虑多层次信息(如社会行为数据)的必要性。此外,在临床环境中进行试验以验证预测工具的有效性也至关重要。许多研究仅使用模型准确性等理论参数来评估其预测能力。如果做出这些改进,预测工具的应用可能成为HIV/STI预防和控制中一个极具启发性的解决方案,也是实现世界卫生组织到2030年终结HIV/STI流行议程的一个契机。

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