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建立尖锐湿疣复发的预测模型。

Establishing a prediction model for recurrence of condyloma acuminatum.

机构信息

Department of Dermatology, Taikang Tongji (Wuhan) Hospital, Wuhan, 430050, China.

Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, China.

出版信息

Eur J Med Res. 2022 Sep 22;27(1):183. doi: 10.1186/s40001-022-00816-7.

Abstract

We collected the clinical data of 156 patients diagnosed with condyloma acuminatum (CA), including age, gender, marriage, education level, stay up late, smoking, drinking, number of sexual partners, HPV infection status of sexual partners, genitourinary and anal diseases, condom use, other diseases of HPV infection, location and number of warts, HPV typing, etc. Analyze the risk factors affecting the recurrence of CA, explore the influencing factors and independent influencing factors of CA recurrence, establish the prediction model of CA recurrence, and evaluate its prediction value. Univariate analysis showed that stay up late, HPV infection status of sexual partners, urogenital diseases, condom use, other diseases of HPV infection and the number of CA were the influencing factors of CA recurrence. Multivariate analysis showed that condom use (OR = 0.166), HPV infection status of sexual partners (OR = 4.848), number of warts (OR = 1.212) and urogenital diseases (OR = 3.179) were independent factors affecting the recurrence of CA (P < 0.05). Therefore, the prediction model of CA recurrence can be established, and the area under the curve AUC of the prediction model was calculated to be 0.867 (95% CI 0.812-0.923). The model established in this study has certain prediction value for the recurrence of CA and can be used to preliminarily predict the recurrence of CA.

摘要

我们收集了 156 例尖锐湿疣(CA)患者的临床资料,包括年龄、性别、婚姻、教育程度、熬夜、吸烟、饮酒、性伴侣数量、性伴侣 HPV 感染状况、泌尿生殖和肛门疾病、避孕套使用情况、HPV 感染相关疾病、疣的位置和数量、HPV 型别等。分析影响 CA 复发的危险因素,探讨 CA 复发的影响因素及独立影响因素,建立 CA 复发的预测模型,并评价其预测价值。单因素分析显示,熬夜、性伴侣 HPV 感染状况、泌尿生殖疾病、避孕套使用情况、HPV 感染相关疾病、CA 数量是 CA 复发的影响因素。多因素分析显示,避孕套使用(OR=0.166)、性伴侣 HPV 感染状况(OR=4.848)、疣的数量(OR=1.212)和泌尿生殖疾病(OR=3.179)是影响 CA 复发的独立因素(P<0.05)。因此,可以建立 CA 复发的预测模型,计算预测模型的曲线下面积 AUC 为 0.867(95%CI 0.812-0.923)。本研究建立的模型对 CA 的复发具有一定的预测价值,可初步预测 CA 的复发。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/72f3/9494849/41295996b5ae/40001_2022_816_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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