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基于故障模式、影响及危害性分析（FMECA）和故障树分析（FFTA）的海底管汇系统可靠性分析

Reliability analysis of subsea manifold system using FMECA and FFTA.

作者信息

Liu Chao, Zhou Chuankun, Tan Liping, Cui Junguo, Xiao Wensheng, Liu Jian, Wang Hongyan, Wang Teng

机构信息

College of Electromechanical Engineering, Qingdao University of Science & Technology, Qingdao, 266061, China.

National Engineering Research Center of Marine Geophysical Prospecting and Exploration and Development Equipment, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao, 266580, China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2024 Oct 2;14(1):22873. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-73410-y.

DOI:10.1038/s41598-024-73410-y
PMID:39358465
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11447088/
Abstract

Subsea manifold system is a complex system that occupies a pivotal role in contemporary ocean engineering and has a significant impact on the safety of marine resource exploitation. Reliability technology plays a significant role in ensuring the safe operation of the subsea manifold system. To perform a comprehensive analysis of the reliability of complex systems, a combination method of FMECA-FFTA (Failure Modes, Effects and Criticality Analysis - Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis) is introduced in this study. Firstly, FMECA is used to accomplish a qualitative analysis of system reliability considering multifactorial failure modes, which included analyzing potential failure modes, causes of system failure, and evaluating the degree of hazard to the system through a risk matrix diagram. Then, FFTA is applied to build a fault tree model to divide the system into "system-subsystem-component" and determine the minimal cut sets for quantitative analysis of system reliability. In addition, fuzzy set theory is incorporated to improve the accuracy of handling uncertainty in quantitative reliability analysis. Finally, a qualitative and quantitative reliability analysis is conducted by using FMECA-FFTA method for subsea manifold system. The failure modes of the subsea manifold system are clearly identified, including high-risk modes such as external leakage, medium-high-risk modes such as fail to close/lock on demand, and medium-risk modes such as leakage of critical location, plugged, and effective measures should be taken to focus on preventive protection and regular testing for the high risk, medium-high risk and medium risk modes.

摘要

海底管汇系统是一个复杂系统，在当代海洋工程中占据关键地位，对海洋资源开发安全有重大影响。可靠性技术在确保海底管汇系统安全运行方面发挥着重要作用。为对复杂系统的可靠性进行全面分析，本研究引入了FMECA-FFTA（故障模式、影响及危害性分析-模糊故障树分析）组合方法。首先，利用FMECA对考虑多因素故障模式的系统可靠性进行定性分析，包括分析潜在故障模式、系统故障原因，并通过风险矩阵图评估对系统的危害程度。然后，应用FFTA构建故障树模型，将系统划分为“系统-子系统-部件”，确定最小割集以对系统可靠性进行定量分析。此外，纳入模糊集理论以提高定量可靠性分析中处理不确定性的准确性。最后，采用FMECA-FFTA方法对海底管汇系统进行定性和定量可靠性分析。明确识别了海底管汇系统的故障模式，包括外部泄漏等高风险模式、按需无法关闭/锁定等中高风险模式以及关键位置泄漏、堵塞等中风险模式，应针对高风险、中高风险和中风险模式采取有效措施，重点进行预防性保护和定期测试。

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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4267/11447088/56d386177bf9/41598_2024_73410_Fig2_HTML.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4267/11447088/4bda9de88d01/41598_2024_73410_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4267/11447088/0a1aa5c5a918/41598_2024_73410_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4267/11447088/f4088691e3ca/41598_2024_73410_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4267/11447088/80fc309d783f/41598_2024_73410_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4267/11447088/8024e0b1bfd3/41598_2024_73410_Fig9_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4267/11447088/a3127bcdd1c8/41598_2024_73410_Fig10_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4267/11447088/53bc4b6a6b86/41598_2024_73410_Fig11_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4267/11447088/c3ac4cfb796d/41598_2024_73410_Fig12_HTML.jpg

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