Assessment and prediction of Water Quality Index (WQI) by seasonal key water parameters in a coastal city: application of machine learning models.

The Water Quality Index (WQI) provides comprehensive assessments in river systems; however, its calculation involves numerous water quality parameters, costly in sample collection and laboratory analysis. The study aimed to determine key water parameters and the most reliable models, considering seasonal variations in the water environment, to maximize the precision of WQI prediction by a minimal set of water parameters. Ten statistical or machine learning models were developed to predict the WQI over four seasons using water quality dataset collected in a coastal city adjacent to the Yellow Sea in China, based on which the key water parameters were identified and the variations were assessed by the Seasonal-Trend decomposition procedure based on Loess (STL). Results indicated that model performance generally improved with adding more input variables except Self-Organizing Map (SOM). Tree-based ensemble methods like Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) and Random Forest (RF) demonstrated the highest accuracy, particularly in winter. Nutrients (Ammonia Nitrogen (AN) and Total Phosphorus (TP)), Dissolved Oxygen (DO), and turbidity were determined as key water parameters, based on which, the prediction accuracy for Medium and Low grades was perfect while it was over 80% for the Good grade in spring and winter and dropped to around 70% in summer and autumn. Nutrient concentrations were higher at inland stations; however, it worsened at coastal stations, especially in summer. The study underscores the importance of reliable WQI prediction models in water quality assessment, especially when data is limited, which are crucial for managing water resources effectively.