Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Sha Tin, N.T., Hong Kong; School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China.
College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Key Laboratory of Beijing on Regional Air Pollution Control, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China.
J Environ Manage. 2024 Nov;370:122652. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122652. Epub 2024 Oct 2.
To meet the goal of the Paris Agreement, China pledges to realize the "Dual Carbon" targets by 2060. As the capital of China, Beijing plays a leading role in becoming zero-emission or carbon neutral in the future. We project the pollutants emissions of building sector based on current strict clean air policies (PO scenario) and China's carbon neutrality target by 2060 (CN scenario) from 2019 to 2050. Results show that PM concentration will increase by 2.62 μg/m under PO scenario; under the CN scenario, ozone concentration will increase by 2.53 μg/m but PM concentration will reduce by 9.04 μg/m. It is projected that China carbon neutrality goals could avoid 11.12% of PM-related health burden; With strict clean air policies, health burdens of ozone (3.9%) and PM (4.1%) could be avoided, respectively. This study highlights the importance of achieving co-benefits of air quality and public health.
为实现《巴黎协定》的目标，中国承诺在 2060 年前实现“双碳”目标。作为中国的首都，北京在未来实现零排放或碳中和方面发挥着主导作用。我们根据目前严格的清洁空气政策（PO 情景）和中国 2060 年实现碳中和的目标（CN 情景），预测了 2019 年至 2050 年建筑部门的污染物排放。结果表明，在 PO 情景下，PM 浓度将增加 2.62μg/m；在 CN 情景下，臭氧浓度将增加 2.53μg/m，但 PM 浓度将减少 9.04μg/m。预计中国实现碳中和目标可避免 11.12%与 PM 相关的健康负担；采取严格的清洁空气政策，可分别避免臭氧（3.9%）和 PM（4.1%）造成的健康负担。本研究强调了实现空气质量和公众健康共同效益的重要性。
