Preoperative prognostic stratification and prediction of long-term outcomes after pancreatoduodenectomy for distal cholangiocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND

Patients with distal cholangiocarcinoma (DCC) frequently receive adjuvant chemotherapy in preoperative and postoperative settings, but prediction of prognostic risk at the time of treatment selection remains challenging.

METHODS

This single-center retrospective study enrolled DCC patients who underwent initial pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) between 2009 and 2022. Preoperative clinical parameters were collected, and Cox regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for overall survival (OS).

RESULTS

Among 170 patients examined, the median tumor depth was 10 mm, and 37 % of the patients were diagnosed with pT3. Overall, 46 % of patients had lymph node metastasis. The median and 5-year OS was 58.2 months and 50 %, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed tumor size on computed tomography (CT) ≥15 mm and main pancreatic duct (MPD) dilatation (≥3 mm) as independent risk factors for OS among various preoperative parameters; the prognosis was stratified based on these two parameters. Patients with one risk factor had similar outcomes (5-year OS: 39 %) to pStage IIB DCC (pT2N1 or pT3), while those with two risk factors had a prognosis akin to pStage IIIA (pN2), with a high early recurrence rate of 64 % (5-year OS: 8 %). Among non-risk group patients with low carbohydrate antigen (CA)19-9 levels (<37 U/mL), the prognosis was comparable (5-year OS: 72 %) to those with pStage I DCC.

CONCLUSION

A simple stratification approach was developed to predict long-term postoperative outcomes. To improve poor prognosis, intensive therapy, including neoadjuvant chemotherapy, should be considered for patients with two risk factors.