Division of Landscape Architecture, Department of Architecture, Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
Environ Res. 2024 Dec 15;263(Pt 2):120091. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2024.120091. Epub 2024 Oct 3.
Multiple studies have reported the profound influence of various climate factors on dengue fever infection, while the effects of joint exposure to warm and wet environment, a condition favouring dengue vectors, on disease transmission were less evaluated. This study aims to investigate the impact of various compound temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity exposures on dengue fever infection in the South and Southeast Asia regions.
Weekly dengue fever surveillance data from 2012 to 2020 were collected from 48 locations in four countries named Singapore (1 location), Sri Lanka (15 locations), Malaysia (9 locations), and Thailand (23 locations, with 11 locations having different study periods). The distributed lag non-linear models were built to assess the impacts of compound temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity exposures on dengue fever infection risks.
A total of 1,359,993 dengue fever cases were reported with 9.33%, 24.02%, 48.73%, and 17.91% cases contributed by Singapore, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, and Thailand, respectively. Compared to non-warm-non-wet, compound warm-wet was associated with an increased dengue risk (RR:1.32, 95% CI:1.21-1.44). Compared to moderate temperature-humidity, warm-wet environment was also associated with an increase in dengue risk (RR:1.37, 95% CI:1.22-1.55). In comparison to weeks with moderate temperature-rainfall, warm-wet weeks was linked to an elevated dengue risk (RR:1.39, 95% CI:1.27-1.52), whereas cold-dry weather would significantly reduce the infection risk (RR:0.70, 95% CI:0.62-0.80). Modification effects showed that the hot effect on dengue infection was more pronounced under higher humidity, while the impact of rainfall increased with warmer temperature.
Warm-wet events were associated with an increased dengue fever risk, while the infection risk would decline in cold-dry environment, and modification effects exist among exposures. Findings from this study highlight the importance of considering joint temperature, humidity, and rainfall dependency of dengue fever infection in disease prevention and control.
多项研究报告了各种气候因素对登革热感染的深远影响，而温暖湿润环境（有利于登革热媒介的条件）的联合暴露对疾病传播的影响则较少被评估。本研究旨在探讨南方和东南亚地区各种复合温度、降雨量和相对湿度暴露对登革热感染的影响。
从 2012 年至 2020 年，从新加坡（1 个地点）、斯里兰卡（15 个地点）、马来西亚（9 个地点）和泰国（23 个地点，其中 11 个地点的研究期间不同）的 48 个地点收集了每周的登革热监测数据。建立了分布式滞后非线性模型，以评估复合温度、降雨量和相对湿度暴露对登革热感染风险的影响。
共报告了 1359993 例登革热病例，新加坡、斯里兰卡、马来西亚和泰国分别占 9.33%、24.02%、48.73%和 17.91%。与非温暖非湿润相比，复合温暖湿润与登革热风险增加相关（RR：1.32，95%CI：1.21-1.44）。与中等温度湿度相比，温暖湿润的环境也与登革热风险增加相关（RR：1.37，95%CI：1.22-1.55）。与中等温度降雨周相比，温暖湿润周与登革热风险升高相关（RR：1.39，95%CI：1.27-1.52），而寒冷干燥的天气会显著降低感染风险（RR：0.70，95%CI：0.62-0.80）。修饰效应表明，在较高湿度下，高温对登革热感染的影响更为明显，而降雨量的影响随着温度的升高而增加。
温暖湿润的事件与登革热风险增加相关，而在寒冷干燥的环境中，感染风险会下降，暴露之间存在修饰效应。本研究的结果强调了在疾病预防和控制中考虑登革热感染的联合温度、湿度和降雨量依赖性的重要性。
