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热浪和寒潮与伊朗特定病因死亡率的关联:系统评价和荟萃分析。

Association of heat and cold waves with cause-specific mortality in Iran: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

机构信息

Center for Air Pollution Research (CAPR), Institute for Environmental Research (IER), Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

Department of Health in Emergencies and Disasters, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2024 Oct 7;14(1):23327. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-74821-7.

Abstract

Despite the frequent occurrence of heat waves in the Middle East, there is a lack of evidence regarding the overall estimates for the effect of heat waves on mortality in this region. This study aimed to review the effect of exposure to heat and cold waves and daily cause-specific mortality. Four electronic databases were searched. The titles, abstracts, and full-texts of the articles were carefully reviewed by two researchers. Once eligible studies were identified, the required data were extracted. Separate meta-analyses were conducted based on gender, age group, and health endpoint combinations. According to the meta-analysis, heat waves had a statistically significant effect on all-cause mortality with an RR of 1.23 (CI 95%: 1.08, 1.39). Cardiovascular mortality significantly increased in heat waves with an RR of 1.08 (CI 95%: 1.05, 1.10). However, the increase in respiratory mortality was not statistically significant. Compared to young people (age < 65 years old) and women, elderly and men were more vulnerable to heat waves with RRs of 1.31 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.57) and 1.33 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.58), respectively. This study can be beneficial in developing response or adaptation plans for heat waves. Future studies should focus on other specific health endpoints like ischemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, etc., and other outcomes such as hospitalization and emergency visits.

摘要

尽管中东地区经常发生热浪,但关于热浪对该地区死亡率的总体影响,仍缺乏证据。本研究旨在综述暴露于热浪和寒潮以及每日特定原因死亡率的影响。检索了四个电子数据库。由两名研究人员仔细审查文章的标题、摘要和全文。一旦确定了合格的研究,就提取所需的数据。根据性别、年龄组和健康终点组合,分别进行了荟萃分析。根据荟萃分析,热浪对全因死亡率有统计学显著影响,RR 为 1.23(95%CI:1.08,1.39)。心血管死亡率在热浪中显著增加,RR 为 1.08(95%CI:1.05,1.10)。然而,呼吸死亡率的增加没有统计学意义。与年轻人(年龄<65 岁)和女性相比,老年人和男性更容易受到热浪的影响,RR 分别为 1.31(95%CI:1.05,1.57)和 1.33(95%CI:1.08,1.58)。本研究有助于制定热浪应对或适应计划。未来的研究应关注其他特定的健康终点,如缺血性心脏病、慢性阻塞性肺疾病等,以及其他结果,如住院和急诊就诊。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c7a0/11458800/8c9ae427919a/41598_2024_74821_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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