Anthropogenic and climate change-driven coastline dynamics will erode future nesting habitats of the kentish plover on the central adriatic coast.

Shorebirds play a crucial role in assessing the health of coastal ecosystems due to their life history, behaviour, migratory patterns, and feeding preferences. Many shorebird species are experiencing population declines worldwide, driven by habitat loss and climate change. Understanding these challenges requires extensive data on their distribution and breeding ecology. The Kentish Plover (Anarhynchus alexandrinus) is a small shorebird that constructs its nests on sandy beaches. However, there is a scarcity of data regarding the reproductive ecology of this species in many areas, including the Molise region of Southern Italy. This study aimed at assessing the potential role of environmental variables derived from remote sensing to model current and future Kentish Plover nesting habitat suitability accounting for future scenarios of coastal dynamics in 2040. Data on Kentish Plover nests were collected along the Molise coast over several years and used to calibrate ecological niche models (ENMs) relying on environmental variables derived from coastal images. Kentish Plover nesting habitat suitability was mostly affected by distance from open sand, artificial surfaces, shoreline, and herbaceous vegetation and forested areas. The study predicts an average decline of more than 22% in suitable nesting environments for the Kentish Plover within the next two decades. Results indicated that our modelling approach can offer valuable insights for the conservation strategy of Kentish Plover in the region. In conclusion, we assert that preserving the nesting habitat of the Kentish Plover will not only safeguard this species, but also other species that inhabit similar environments, along with providing protection for coastal landscapes and associated ecosystem services.