International Centre for Education and Research in Neuropsychiatry (ICERN), Samara State Medical University, 78, Nagornaya Street, 443016 Samara, Russia,
Psychiatr Danub. 2024 Sep;36(Suppl 2):115-128.
We examined the prevalence and spread of conspiracy beliefs about the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic among representatives of the Russian population. Our study aimed to identify belief clusters and develop predictive models to understand the factors that influence conspiracy beliefs, particularly in the context of how they might evolve in response to socio-political events and cause mental disturbances, thus in relation to specific pathways of the infodemic and psychodemic waves that spread among vulnerable population groups.
Data respondents to the international COMET-G study living in Russia during pandemic period (n=7,777) were analyzed using descriptive statistics, K-means clustering, and various machine learning models, including gradient boosting. We identified distinct populations depending on predominant beliefs about COVID-19 pandemic origins, and applied game theory (Shapely additive explanations) to determine the most influential variables in predicting cluster membership.
Four distinct belief clusters emerged, which we designate as Naturalists, Conspiracists, COVID-Sceptics, and the Incoherent Attitude groups. The Incoherent Attitude cluster constituted 20.8% of the sample, and was particularly associated with mental health signs such as sleep disturbances and the use of psychotropic medications. Internet use and mental health-related factors, as well as the respondents' education level, were key predictors of mental disturbances with mediating effects of the conspiracy views across all clusters. Conspiracy beliefs about COVID-19 origin were highly fluid/variable, often being shaped by external sociopolitical factors rather than objective health data.
The cluster with Incoherent Attitude regarding COVID-pandemic origins, which had an association with psychoticism, showed a greater predisposition for mental health problems, than did the Conspiracist, Naturalist and Sceptic clusters. We suppose that underlying psychoticism bears a relation to their sleep problems and resorting to use of psychotropic medications. These results emphasizes the global health need for implementing target-focused and selective strategies that address public misinformation and promote the adoption of critical thinking skills to mitigate the impact of conspiracy theories, considering the factors of education level and pre-existing mental disorders.
我们研究了俄罗斯民众中关于新冠疫情起源的阴谋论信仰的流行程度和传播情况。我们的研究旨在确定信仰集群，并开发预测模型，以了解影响阴谋论信仰的因素，特别是在它们如何因社会政治事件而演变并导致精神障碍的情况下，从而与弱势群体中传播的信息疫情和心理疫情波的特定途径有关。
对在疫情期间居住在俄罗斯的国际 COMET-G 研究的数据受访者（n=7777）进行了描述性统计、K 均值聚类和各种机器学习模型（包括梯度提升）分析。我们根据对新冠疫情起源的主要信仰确定了不同的人群，并应用博弈论（Shapely 加法解释）来确定预测集群成员资格的最具影响力的变量。
出现了四个不同的信仰集群，我们将其指定为自然主义者、阴谋论者、新冠怀疑论者和不一致态度群体。不一致态度集群构成了样本的 20.8%，与睡眠障碍和使用精神药物等心理健康迹象特别相关。互联网使用和与心理健康相关的因素，以及受访者的教育水平，是所有集群中精神障碍的关键预测因素，并通过阴谋论观点在各集群中产生中介效应。关于新冠起源的阴谋论信仰高度易变/多变，往往受到外部社会政治因素的影响，而不是客观健康数据的影响。
对于新冠疫情起源持不一致态度的集群，与精神病态有关，与阴谋论者、自然主义者和怀疑论者集群相比，更容易出现心理健康问题。我们认为，潜在的精神病态与他们的睡眠问题和使用精神药物有关。这些结果强调了全球卫生需要实施以目标为导向和有选择性的策略，以解决公众错误信息，并促进批判性思维技能的采用，以减轻阴谋论的影响，同时考虑教育水平和现有精神障碍等因素。
