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规划和调整新冠病毒加强针接种活动以减轻疾病负担。

Planning and adjusting the COVID-19 booster vaccination campaign to reduce disease burden.

作者信息

Di Domenico Laura, Goldberg Yair, Colizza Vittoria

机构信息

Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.

Faculty of Data and Decisions Science, Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, Israel.

出版信息

Infect Dis Model. 2024 Sep 12;10(1):150-162. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2024.09.002. eCollection 2025 Mar.

Abstract

As public health policies shifted in 2023 from emergency response to long-term COVID-19 disease management, immunization programs started to face the challenge of formulating routine booster campaigns in a still highly uncertain seasonal behavior of the COVID-19 epidemic. Mathematical models assessing past booster campaigns and integrating knowledge on waning of immunity can help better inform current and future vaccination programs. Focusing on the first booster campaign in the 2021/2022 winter in France, we used a multi-strain age-stratified transmission model to assess the effectiveness of the observed booster vaccination in controlling the succession of Delta, Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 waves. We explored counterfactual scenarios altering the eligibility criteria and inter-dose delay. Our study showed that the success of the immunization program in curtailing the Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 waves was largely dependent on the inclusion of adults among the eligible groups, and was highly sensitive to the inter-dose delay, which was changed over time. Shortening or prolonging this delay, even by only one month, would have required substantial social distancing interventions to curtail the hospitalization peak. Also, the time window for adjusting the delay was very short. Our findings highlight the importance of readiness and adaptation in the formulation of routine booster campaign in the current level of epidemiological uncertainty.

摘要

随着2023年公共卫生政策从应急响应转向长期的新冠疾病管理,免疫计划开始面临在新冠疫情季节性行为仍高度不确定的情况下制定常规加强免疫活动的挑战。评估过去加强免疫活动并整合免疫衰退知识的数学模型有助于为当前和未来的疫苗接种计划提供更好的信息。以法国2021/2022年冬季的首次加强免疫活动为重点,我们使用了一个多毒株年龄分层传播模型来评估观察到的加强免疫接种在控制德尔塔、奥密克戎BA.1和BA.2毒株浪潮相继出现方面的有效性。我们探讨了改变资格标准和剂间间隔的反事实情景。我们的研究表明,免疫计划在遏制奥密克戎BA.1和BA.2毒株浪潮方面的成功很大程度上取决于 eligible groups 中纳入成年人,并且对随时间变化的剂间间隔高度敏感。缩短或延长这一间隔,即使仅一个月,都将需要大量的社会 distancing 干预措施来减少住院高峰。此外,调整间隔的时间窗口非常短。我们的研究结果凸显了在当前流行病学不确定性水平下制定常规加强免疫活动时做好准备和进行调整的重要性。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3cbe/11459620/02a6e1fd3e2f/gr1.jpg

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