Navigating Nephrology's Decline Through a GPT-4 Analysis of Internal Medicine Specialties in the United States: Qualitative Study.

BACKGROUND

The 2024 Nephrology fellowship match data show the declining interest in nephrology in the United States, with an 11% drop in candidates and a mere 66% (321/488) of positions filled.

OBJECTIVE

The study aims to discern the factors influencing this trend using ChatGPT, a leading chatbot model, for insights into the comparative appeal of nephrology versus other internal medicine specialties.

METHODS

Using the GPT-4 model, the study compared nephrology with 13 other internal medicine specialties, evaluating each on 7 criteria including intellectual complexity, work-life balance, procedural involvement, research opportunities, patient relationships, career demand, and financial compensation. Each criterion was assigned scores from 1 to 10, with the cumulative score determining the ranking. The approach included counteracting potential bias by instructing GPT-4 to favor other specialties over nephrology in reverse scenarios.

RESULTS

GPT-4 ranked nephrology only above sleep medicine. While nephrology scored higher than hospice and palliative medicine, it fell short in key criteria such as work-life balance, patient relationships, and career demand. When examining the percentage of filled positions in the 2024 appointment year match, nephrology's filled rate was 66%, only higher than the 45% (155/348) filled rate of geriatric medicine. Nephrology's score decreased by 4%-14% in 5 criteria including intellectual challenge and complexity, procedural involvement, career opportunity and demand, research and academic opportunities, and financial compensation.

CONCLUSIONS

ChatGPT does not favor nephrology over most internal medicine specialties, highlighting its diminishing appeal as a career choice. This trend raises significant concerns, especially considering the overall physician shortage, and prompts a reevaluation of factors affecting specialty choice among medical residents.