Simon D G, Lubin M F
Med Decis Making. 1985 Fall;5(3):335-54. doi: 10.1177/0272989X8500500309.
The benefits and costs of routinely using computerized tomography (CT) to diagnose surgically treatable causes of dementia compared to a more selective strategy were assessed, using a decision-analytic model, for hypothetical cohorts at 60, 70, and 80 years of age. The model was also used to project what the impact would be if magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were to replace CT, assuming that MRI is a perfect test. Given plausible assumptions, routine CT could be expected to detect between 1 425 and 14 930 additional surgically treatable cases at an extra cost of between $0 and $49 million per 100 000 persons scanned. Replacing CT with MRI might yield an additional 70 to 150 cases of surgically treatable dementia, at an additional cost of $20-$30 million. Given current treatment limitations in dementia, it appears that, as a clinical tool, MRI will have little immediate health impact on this problem.
使用决策分析模型,针对60岁、70岁和80岁的假设队列,评估了与更具选择性的策略相比,常规使用计算机断层扫描(CT)诊断可手术治疗的痴呆病因的益处和成本。该模型还用于预测,如果磁共振成像(MRI)取代CT会产生什么影响,假设MRI是一种完美的检测方法。在合理的假设下,预计常规CT每扫描10万人可额外检测出1425至14930例可手术治疗的病例,额外成本在0至4900万美元之间。用MRI取代CT可能会额外发现70至150例可手术治疗的痴呆病例,额外成本为2000万至3000万美元。鉴于目前痴呆症的治疗局限性,作为一种临床工具,MRI似乎对这个问题几乎没有直接的健康影响。