Home blood pressure stability score is associated with better cardiovascular prognosis: data from the nationwide prospective J-HOP study.

A home blood pressure (BP)-centered strategy is emerging as the optimal approach to achieve adequate BP control in individuals with hypertension, but a simple cardiovascular risk score based on home BP level and variability is lacking. This study used prospective data from the Japan Morning Surge-Home Blood Pressure (J-HOP) extended study to develop a simple home BP stability score for the prediction of cardiovascular risk. The J-HOP extended study included 4070 participants (mean age 64.9 years) who measured home BP three times in the morning and evening for 14 days at baseline. During the mean 6.3-year follow-up, there were 260 cardiovascular events. A home BP stability score was calculated based on the average of morning and evening systolic BP (SBP; MEave), and three home BP variability metrics: average real variability (average absolute difference between successive measurements); average peak (average of the highest three SBP values for each individual), and time in therapeutic range (proportion of time spent with MEave home SBP 100-135 mmHg). There was a curvilinear association between the home BP stability score and the risk of cardiovascular events. Compared with individuals in the optimal home SBP stability score group (9-10 points), those in the very high-risk group (0 points) had significantly higher cardiovascular event risk during follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio 3.97, 95% confidence interval 2.22-7.09; p < 0.001), independent of age, sex, medication, cardiovascular risk factors, and office BP. These data show the potential for a simple home BP-based score to predict cardiovascular event risk in people with hypertension.