Overall survival and disease-free survival prediction in Chinese women with breast cancer aged 70 years or older by using nomograms.

PURPOSE

By analyzing the existing data of this study, a prediction tool for the overall breast cancer survival and disease-free survival (DFS) of elderly women was established.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Clinicopathologic data were collected from elderly women with BC who were admitted to the Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital from August 2014 to December 2017. Independent prognostic factors for BC in elderly patients were confirmed using the Cox proportional hazards model. Nomograms were developed with these factors for predicting the 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) as well as DFS. The nomograms' discrimination ability and calibration were assessed through the area under the curve (AUC), concordance index (C-index), decision curve analysis (DCA), and calibration plots.

RESULTS

We enroled 889 elderly patients with BC, and the results showed that the 3-year OS rate was 93.4% (95%CI = 91.8%-95.1%), the 3-year DFS rate was 87.8% (95%CI = 85.7%-90.0%), the 5-year OS rate was 85.6% (95%CI = 83.3%-87.9%), and the 5-year DFS rate was 80.1%(95%CI = 77.5%-82.8%). The corrected C-indices of the OS and DFS nomograms were 0.799 and 0.667, respectively (95%CI = 0.767-0.830 and 0.632-0.702, respectively). Relatively high AUC values were shown by the nomograms for estimating OS and DFS. The DCA revealed that the constructed nomograms had net benefits for clinical application. The calibration curves demonstrated an excellent correspondence between the data predicted by the nomograms and the actual survival data. Survival curves indicated that risk stratification could differentiate OS and DFS.

CONCLUSIONS

This study developed novel and practical nomograms for individual prediction of DFS and OS in elderly BC patients. These nomograms can predict 3- and 5-year OS as well as DFS in the elderly BC patient population, thereby enabling personalized risk assessment and risk-based therapy.