Natal Alvarez Fernando, Conde Redondo Maria Consuelo, Sierrasesumaga Martin Nicolas, Garcia Viña Alejandro, Marfil Peña Carmen, Bahillo Martinez Alfonso, Jojoa Mario, Tamayo Gomez Eduardo
Department of Urology, Clinic University Hospital of Valladolid, 47003 Valladolid, Spain.
Urología Clínica Bilbao, Clínica IMQ Zorrotzaurre, 48014 Bilbao, Spain.
J Clin Med. 2024 Sep 27;13(19):5757. doi: 10.3390/jcm13195757.
: To develop a risk prediction model for the identification of features involved in the prediction of erectile dysfunction (ED) at 12 months following COVID-19 recovery. : We performed an observational prospective multicentre study. Participants were classified according to their history of COVID-19: (I) patients with a past history of COVID-19 and (II) patients without a previous microbiological diagnosis of COVID-19. A total of 361 patients (past history of COVID-19, n = 166; no past history of COVID-19, n = 195) were assessed from January 2022 to March 2023. Patients with a past history of COVID-19 were assessed at 12 months following COVID-19 recovery. The primary outcome measure was ED, assessed through the 5-item International Index of Erectile Function (IIEF-5). Data concerning epidemiologic variables, comorbidities and active treatment were also collected. We performed a binary logistic regression to develop a risk predictive model. Among the models developed, we selected the one with the higher Area Under the Curve (AUC). : The median age was 55 years in both groups. The ED prevalence was 55.9% in patients with past history of COVID-19 and 44.1% in those with no past history of COVID-19. The best predictive model developed for ED comprised 40 variables and had an AUC of 0.8. : We developed a regression model for the prediction of ED 12 months after COVID-19 recovery. The application of our predictive tool in a community setting could eventually prevent the adverse effects of ED on cardiovascular health and the associated unfavourable economic impact.
为了开发一种风险预测模型，以识别新冠病毒感染康复后12个月时与勃起功能障碍（ED）预测相关的特征。
我们进行了一项观察性前瞻性多中心研究。参与者根据其新冠病毒感染病史进行分类：（I）有新冠病毒感染病史的患者和（II）既往无新冠病毒微生物学诊断的患者。从2022年1月至2023年3月，共评估了361名患者（有新冠病毒感染病史，n = 166；无新冠病毒感染病史，n = 195）。有新冠病毒感染病史的患者在新冠病毒感染康复后12个月时进行评估。主要结局指标是ED，通过5项国际勃起功能指数（IIEF-5）进行评估。还收集了有关流行病学变量、合并症和积极治疗的数据。我们进行了二元逻辑回归以开发风险预测模型。在开发的模型中，我们选择了曲线下面积（AUC）较高的模型。
两组的中位年龄均为55岁。有新冠病毒感染病史的患者中ED患病率为55.9%，无新冠病毒感染病史的患者中ED患病率为44.1%。为ED开发的最佳预测模型包含40个变量，AUC为0.8。
我们开发了一种回归模型，用于预测新冠病毒感染康复后12个月时的ED。在社区环境中应用我们的预测工具最终可能预防ED对心血管健康的不利影响以及相关的不良经济影响。
