School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, NSW, Australia.
School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, NSW, Australia; Specialty of Child and Adolescent Health, Sydney Medical School, The University of Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Public Health Res Pract. 2024 Oct 23;34(3):3432421. doi: 10.17061/phrp3432421.
The Australian Government, through the National Obesity Strategy 2022-2032, has set an aspirational goal of reducing the prevalence of childhood and adolescent overweight and obesity by 5% by 2030 (from 25% to 20%). Our objective was to quantify the long-term economic benefits of achieving this goal.
Using a microsimulation model and a synthetic cohort of Australian children and adolescents aged 4-17 years, we estimated the excess per capita lifetime costs of overweight and obesity. Using these results and population projections for 2030, we estimated the potential lifetime cost savings that could be achieved through attaining the National Obesity Strategy goal.
Compared with their peers of a healthy weight, children and adolescents with overweight and obesity were estimated to incur, per capita, excess lifetime costs (discounted) of approximately $19 700 and $46 700, respectively (in 2030 Australian dollars). Achieving the National Obesity Strategy's goal was estimated to save approximately $7.44 billion, predominantly through reductions in lifetime obesity-related healthcare costs and premature mortality.
Our results demonstrate the considerable economic benefits that could be achieved by reducing the current prevalence of childhood and adolescent overweight and obesity in Australia; they provide justification for investment in prevention and treatment for this demographic.
澳大利亚政府通过 2022-2032 年国家肥胖战略，设定了一个有抱负的目标，即在 2030 年将儿童和青少年超重和肥胖的患病率降低 5%（从 25%降至 20%）。我们的目的是量化实现这一目标的长期经济效益。
我们使用微观模拟模型和澳大利亚 4-17 岁儿童和青少年的综合队列，估计了超重和肥胖的人均终生超额成本。利用这些结果和 2030 年的人口预测，我们估计通过实现国家肥胖战略目标可以实现的潜在终生成本节省。
与体重健康的同龄人相比，超重和肥胖的儿童和青少年预计每人将分别产生约 19700 澳元（2030 年澳元）和 46700 澳元的终生超额成本（贴现）。实现国家肥胖战略的目标预计将节省约 74.4 亿美元，主要通过减少与肥胖相关的终生医疗保健费用和过早死亡来实现。
我们的研究结果表明，通过降低澳大利亚当前儿童和青少年超重和肥胖的流行率，可以实现可观的经济效益；为该人群的预防和治疗提供了投资依据。
