中国人群特应性皮炎患病率的变化趋势（1990-2021 年）及 2022-2030 年的预测。

Trends in atopic dermatitis prevalence among the Chinese population (1990-2021) with projections for 2022-2030.

机构信息

School of Public Health and Management, Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou, China.

School of Humanities and Management, Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, China.

出版信息

Pediatr Allergy Immunol. 2024 Oct;35(10):e14271. doi: 10.1111/pai.14271.

DOI:10.1111/pai.14271

PMID:39451004

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Atopic dermatitis (AD) has the highest disease burden among all skin diseases. However, reports on AD prevalence trends in China are limited. This study aimed to investigate the time trends of AD prevalence in China from 1990 to 2021 and to explore the age and sex differences.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study, 2021. We analyzed the annual percentage change in the crude prevalence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of AD from 1990 to 2021 using the Joinpoint model. We predicted the future prevalence of AD from 2022 to 2030 using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

RESULTS

The total ASPR decreased slightly from 1990 (1357.93 per 100,000) to 2021 (1347.11 per 100,000). The ASPR of females (1457.64 per 100,000) was higher than that of males (1247.04 per 100,000) in 2021. The prevalence rate of AD was highest in the under 5 years old age group (3455.56 per 100,000) and the 5-9 years old age group (3360.31 per 100,000). By 2030, the predicted ASPR of AD will be 1394.36 (per 100,000) in males and 1603.69 in females (per 100,000). The predicted prevalence rate in the under 5 years old (3996.14 per 100,000 in males and 3990.68 per 100,000 in females) and 5-9 years old (3714.61 per 100,000 in males and 3963.96 per 100,000 in females) age groups will be higher than those in other age groups.

CONCLUSION

Despite a slight decrease from 1990 to 2021, there has been an increasing trend since 2015 in the total AD burden. Given the increasing burden of AD on Chinese children and females, healthcare practitioners should enhance community education, improve disease management abilities of patients and caregivers, and reduce the burden and healthcare costs of AD.

摘要

背景

特应性皮炎（AD）是所有皮肤病中疾病负担最高的。然而，中国 AD 患病率趋势的报告有限。本研究旨在调查 1990 年至 2021 年中国 AD 患病率的时间趋势，并探讨年龄和性别差异。

方法

数据来自 2021 年全球疾病负担研究。我们使用 Joinpoint 模型分析了 1990 年至 2021 年 AD 粗患病率和年龄标准化患病率（ASPR）的年百分比变化。我们使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测了 2022 年至 2030 年 AD 的未来患病率。

结果

总 ASPR 从 1990 年（每 10 万人 1357.93）略有下降到 2021 年（每 10 万人 1347.11）。2021 年女性的 ASPR（每 10 万人 1457.64）高于男性（每 10 万人 1247.04）。AD 的患病率在 5 岁以下年龄组（每 10 万人 3455.56）和 5-9 岁年龄组（每 10 万人 3360.31）最高。到 2030 年，预计男性 AD 的 ASPR 将为 1394.36（每 10 万人），女性为 1603.69（每 10 万人）。预计 5 岁以下（男性每 10 万人 3996.14，女性每 10 万人 3990.68）和 5-9 岁（男性每 10 万人 3714.61，女性每 10 万人 3963.96）年龄组的患病率将高于其他年龄组。