Guo Yang, Zhang Kao-Yuan, Zou Yan-Fen, Yu Bo
Department of Dermatology, Institute of Dermatology, Peking University Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen Peking University-The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Medical Center, Shenzhen, China.
Front Microbiol. 2023 Jun 15;14:1161969. doi: 10.3389/fmicb.2023.1161969. eCollection 2023.
Atopic dermatitis (AD) is an important global health problem affecting children and adolescents and detailed national information of disease burden in China is lacking. We aimed to evaluate the national disease burden of AD in Chinese children and adolescent, to provide the temporal trends over the past 30 years and to predict the burden for the next 10 years.
The data of AD in China, including incidence, prevalence, and DALY, and population data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD study 2019), which were estimated using the DisMod-MR 2.1. We analyzed the three measures by age and sex; the age groups were <5 years, 5-9 years, 10-14 years, and 15-19 years. The joinpoint regression analyses was conducted to assess the temporal trends from 1990 to 2019. The Bayesian age-period cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict measures from 2020 to 2030.
In 2019, the highest incidence case and rate were observed in <5 years group; for prevalence and disability adjusted life year (DALY), the groups of <5 years and 5-9 years showed similar higher levels and the groups of 10-14 years and 15-19 years had similar relatively lower levels. Overall, the male-to-female ratios were >1 in <5 years group and <1 in 10-14 and 15-19 age groups. The trend analyses found an overall trend of decrease in cases of the three measures; in recent about 3 years, slight increase trends were shown in cases and rates of the three measures in <5 years group. The prediction analyses found a slight decreasing trend for cases of these measures and a slight increasing trend for rates of these measures in the <5 years group in the next 10 years; the 5-9 years group was predicted to increase slightly in rates of the three measures.
In conclusion, the groups of <5 years and 5-9 years are two important populations that need targeted measures to reduce disease burden of AD in China. Regarding sex disparity, we should pay more attention to males in <5 years group and to females in 10-19 years group.
特应性皮炎（AD）是一个影响儿童和青少年的重要全球健康问题，而中国缺乏关于该病负担的详细全国性信息。我们旨在评估中国儿童和青少年AD的全国疾病负担，呈现过去30年的时间趋势，并预测未来10年的负担。
中国AD的数据，包括发病率、患病率和伤残调整生命年（DALY），以及人口数据，均来自《2019年全球疾病负担研究》（GBD研究2019），这些数据是使用DisMod-MR 2.1估算得出的。我们按年龄和性别分析了这三项指标；年龄组分为<5岁、5-9岁、10-14岁和15-19岁。进行了连接点回归分析以评估1990年至2019年的时间趋势。使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型预测2020年至2030年的数据。
2019年，<5岁组的发病例数和发病率最高；就患病率和伤残调整生命年而言，<5岁组和5-9岁组呈现相似较高水平，10-14岁组和15-19岁组则呈现相似相对较低水平。总体而言，<5岁组的男女比例>1，10-14岁和15-19岁年龄组的男女比例<1。趋势分析发现这三项指标的病例数总体呈下降趋势；在最近约3年中，<5岁组的这三项指标的病例数和发病率呈轻微上升趋势。预测分析发现，在未来10年中，<5岁组的这些指标的病例数呈轻微下降趋势，而发病率呈轻微上升趋势；预计5-9岁组的这三项指标的发病率将略有上升。
总之，<5岁组和5-9岁组是中国需要采取针对性措施以减轻AD疾病负担的两个重要人群。关于性别差异，我们应更多关注<5岁组的男性和10-19岁组的女性。
