Li Chuanji, Liu Yunxiang, Lai Youpeng, Shao Hainan
State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture, Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Qinghai University, Xining 810016, China.
Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Integrated Pest Management in Qinghai, Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Qinghai University, Xining 810016, China.
Insects. 2024 Oct 8;15(10):781. doi: 10.3390/insects15100781.
This study has systematically investigated and compared the geographical distribution patterns and population density of () and (), which are endemic to the QTP region and inflict severe damage. Using a method combining the BIOMOD2 integration model (incorporating nine ecological niche models) and current species distribution data, this study has compared changes in potential habitats and distribution centers of these two species during ancient, present, and future climate periods and conducted a correlation test on the prediction results with land use types. The study results indicate that there are differences in geographical distribution patterns, distribution elevations, and population density of these two species. Compared with single models, the integration model exhibits prominent accuracy and stability with higher KAPPA, TSS, and AUC values. The distribution of suitable habitats for these two species is significantly affected by climatic temperature and precipitation. There is a significant difference between the potential habitats of these two species. and are distributed in the northeastern boundary area and the central and eastern areas of the QTP, respectively. The areas of their suitable habitats are significantly and positively correlated with the area of grassland among all land use types of QTP, with no correlations with the areas of other land use types of QTP. The potential habitats of both species during the paleoclimate period were located in the eastern and southeastern boundary areas of the QTP. During the paleoclimate period, their potential habitats expanded towards the Hengduan Mountains (low-latitude regions) in the south compared with their current suitable habitats. With the subsequent temperature rising, their distribution centers shifted towards the northeast (high-latitude) regions, which could validate the hypothesis that the Hengduan Mountains were refuges for these species during the glacial period. In the future, there will be more potential suitable habitats for these two species in the QTP. This study elucidates the ecological factors affecting the current distribution of these grass caterpillars, provides an important reference for designating the prevention and control areas for and , and helps protect the alpine meadow ecosystem in the region.
本研究系统调查并比较了青藏高原地区特有的、造成严重危害的（）和（）的地理分布格局及种群密度。本研究采用结合BIOMOD2集成模型（包含九个生态位模型）和当前物种分布数据的方法，比较了这两个物种在古代、当前和未来气候时期潜在栖息地和分布中心的变化，并对预测结果与土地利用类型进行了相关性检验。研究结果表明，这两个物种在地理分布格局、分布海拔和种群密度方面存在差异。与单一模型相比，集成模型具有更高的KAPPA、TSS和AUC值，表现出显著的准确性和稳定性。这两个物种适宜栖息地的分布受气候温度和降水的显著影响。这两个物种的潜在栖息地存在显著差异。（）和（）分别分布在青藏高原的东北边界地区以及中部和东部地区。在青藏高原所有土地利用类型中，它们适宜栖息地的面积与草地面积显著正相关，与青藏高原其他土地利用类型的面积无相关性。这两个物种在古气候时期的潜在栖息地位于青藏高原的东部和东南部边界地区。在古气候时期，与它们当前的适宜栖息地相比，其潜在栖息地向南部的横断山脉（低纬度地区）扩展。随着随后温度升高，它们各自的分布中心向东北（高纬度）地区转移，这可以验证横断山脉在冰川期是这些物种避难所的假说。未来，青藏高原将有更多适合这两个物种的潜在栖息地。本研究阐明了影响这些草毛虫当前分布的生态因素，为划定（）和（）的防治区域提供了重要参考，并有助于保护该地区的高寒草甸生态系统。
