Yu Wei, Sun Dongrui, Ma Jiayi, Gao Xinyuan, Fang Yu, Pan Huidong, Wang Huiru, Shi Juan
School of Science, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China.
College of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China.
Insects. 2025 Jul 21;16(7):742. doi: 10.3390/insects16070742.
Dutch elm disease is one of the most devastating plant diseases, primarily spread through bark beetles. is a key vector of this disease. In this study, distribution data of were collected and filtered. Combined with environmental and climatic variables, an ensemble model was developed using the Biomod2 platform to predict its potential geographical distribution in China. The selection of climate variables was critical for accurate prediction. Eight bioclimatic factors with high importance were selected from 19 candidate variables. Among these, the three most important factors are the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), precipitation seasonality (bio15), and precipitation in the driest quarter (bio17). Under current climate conditions, suitable habitats for are mainly located in the temperate regions between 30° and 60° N latitude. These include parts of Europe, East Asia, eastern and northwestern North America, and southern and northeastern South America. In China, the low-suitability area was estimated at 37,883.39 km, and the medium-suitability area at 251.14 km. No high-suitability regions were identified. However, low-suitability zones were widespread across multiple provinces. Under future climate scenarios, low-suitability areas are still projected across China. Medium-suitability areas are expected to increase under SSP370 and SSP585, particularly along the eastern coastal regions, peaking between 2041 and 2060. High-suitability zones may also emerge under these two scenarios, again concentrated in coastal areas. These findings provide a theoretical basis for entry quarantine measures and early warning systems aimed at controlling the spread of in China.
荷兰榆疫病是最具毁灭性的植物病害之一，主要通过树皮甲虫传播。 是这种病害的关键传播媒介。在本研究中，收集并筛选了 的分布数据。结合环境和气候变量，利用Biomod2平台开发了一个集成模型，以预测其在中国的潜在地理分布。气候变量的选择对于准确预测至关重要。从19个候选变量中选取了8个重要性较高的生物气候因子。其中，最重要的三个因子是最冷月的最低温度（bio6）、降水季节性（bio15）和最干燥季度的降水量（bio17）。在当前气候条件下， 的适宜栖息地主要位于北纬30°至60°之间的温带地区。这些地区包括欧洲部分地区、东亚、北美东部和西北部以及南美南部和东北部。在中国，低适宜区估计为37,883.39平方公里，中等适宜区为251.14平方公里。未发现高适宜区。然而，低适宜区广泛分布于多个省份。在未来气候情景下，预计中国仍将存在低适宜区。在SSP370和SSP585情景下，中等适宜区预计会增加，特别是在东部沿海地区，在2041年至2060年达到峰值。在这两种情景下也可能出现高适宜区，同样集中在沿海地区。这些研究结果为旨在控制 在中国传播的入境检疫措施和预警系统提供了理论依据。
