An Min, Wei Ya-Qian, He Wei-Jun, Huang Jin, Fang Xue, Song Meng-Fei, Wang Bei
College of Economic and Management, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2024 Oct 8;45(10):5833-5843. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202311071.
The increasing climate change and human activities exert their influence on the ecological sensitivity of the region individually and interactively. Therefore, a clear understanding of the impact of climate change and human activities on ecological sensitivity will enhance the resilience of the regional ecological environment and the level of sustainable development. This study took the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the first demonstration zone of China's ecological civilization construction, as the research object. Based on the meteorological, remote sensing, and statistical data of 130 cities in the whole region from 2001 to 2021, an index system of climate change, human activities, and ecological sensitivity was constructed. Response surface methodology （RSM） was used to explore the effects of climate and anthropogenic single factors and interactions on the ecological sensitivity in each region. The results showed that： ① The ecological sensitivity value of the belt fluctuated and rose in time, rising by 2.2% from 2001 to 2021. In terms of space, the overall spatial distribution was "high in the north and low in the south." In 2021, the proportion of severely and extremely sensitive cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt reached nearly 50%. ② For a single factor, the distribution of the effect of the same factor had certain characteristics： The areas where the single factors of economic development, rainfall, and temperature had a positive impact on the ecological sensitivity were concentrated in the areas with higher or faster economic development, along and south of the Yangtze River. For the interaction factors, the effect of 78.6% of the factors on the ecological sensitivity was negative interaction, and the change of one factor level would change the direction of the effect of the other factor on the regional sensitivity. ③ The comprehensive ecological management area of the Yangtze River Economic Belt was divided based on the ecological sensitivity and climate sensitivity. The governance areas that needed priority improvement were clustered within the three urban agglomerations and their northern adjacent areas, which meant that the ecological sensitivity and climate sensitivity of a city had spillover effects. This study is expected to provide inspiration for the economic zone and even the national and global efforts in the field of regional ecological governance.
气候变化加剧和人类活动对该地区生态敏感性的影响既单独存在，又相互作用。因此，清楚了解气候变化和人类活动对生态敏感性的影响，将提高区域生态环境的恢复力和可持续发展水平。本研究以中国生态文明建设首个示范区长江经济带为研究对象。基于2001年至2021年该地区130个城市的气象、遥感和统计数据，构建了气候变化、人类活动和生态敏感性指标体系。采用响应面法（RSM）探究气候和人为单一因素及其相互作用对各地区生态敏感性的影响。结果表明：①该经济带生态敏感性值随时间波动上升，2001年至2021年上升了2.2%。在空间上，总体空间分布为“北高南低”。2021年，长江经济带重度和极敏感城市的比例接近50%。②对于单一因素，同一因素影响的分布具有一定特征：经济发展、降雨和温度单一因素对生态敏感性有正向影响的区域集中在经济发展水平较高或较快的地区，以及长江沿线及以南地区。对于交互因素，78.6%的因素对生态敏感性的影响为负向交互作用，一个因素水平的变化会改变另一个因素对区域敏感性影响的方向。③基于生态敏感性和气候敏感性对长江经济带综合生态治理区域进行划分。需要优先改善的治理区域集中在三大城市群及其北部相邻地区，这意味着一个城市的生态敏感性和气候敏感性具有溢出效应。本研究有望为经济区乃至国家和全球在区域生态治理领域的努力提供启示。
