Nunnari Alessio, Di Girolamo Filippo Giorgio, Teraž Kaja, Fiotti Nicola, Šimunič Boštjan, Mearelli Filippo, Pišot Rado, Biolo Gianni
Unit of Internal Medicine, Clinica Medica, Department of Medical Surgical and Health Sciences, University of Trieste, Strada di Fiume 447, 34100 Trieste, Italy.
Department of Medicine, Surgery and Health Sciences MD, University of Trieste, Strada di Fiume 447, 34100 Trieste, Italy.
J Clin Med. 2024 Oct 16;13(20):6155. doi: 10.3390/jcm13206155.
: A Body Shape Index (ABSI), which accounts for waist circumference relative to mass and height, shows a robust association with mortality risk. The present study evaluates the effectiveness of ABSI as a predictor of 10-year all-cause mortality in physically active, non-obese elderly individuals. : This prospective cohort study included 159 volunteers (94 women, aged 60-80 years), recruited in the frame of the "Physical Activity and Nutrition for Great Ageing" (PANGeA) Cross-border Cooperation Program Slovenia-Italy 2007-2013, and followed for 10 years. Baseline characteristics included anthropometric measurements, bioelectrical impedance analysis, and cardiovascular fitness tests (VOmax). Statistical analyses (Cox regression, Kaplan-Meier survival) were conducted to examine the relationship between ABSI and mortality. : During the 10-year follow-up, 10 deaths (6.7%) were recorded. ABSI (adjusted for age, smoking, comorbidities, and therapy) was an independent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio = 4.65, < 0.001). Higher ABSI scores were linked to reduced VOmax (r = -0.190, = 0.017) and increased systolic blood pressure (r = 0.262, = 0.001). An ABSI-based predictive model showed strong discriminatory power (AUROC = 0.91). : ABSI is a reliable predictor of 10-year mortality in active, non-obese elderly individuals and may improve risk stratification in clinical practice.
身体形态指数（ABSI）考虑了腰围与体重和身高的关系，显示出与死亡风险有很强的关联。本研究评估了ABSI作为身体活跃、非肥胖老年人10年全因死亡率预测指标的有效性。
这项前瞻性队列研究纳入了159名志愿者（94名女性，年龄在60 - 80岁之间），这些志愿者是在2007 - 2013年斯洛文尼亚 - 意大利“健康老龄化的身体活动与营养”（PANGeA）跨境合作项目框架下招募的，并随访了10年。基线特征包括人体测量、生物电阻抗分析和心血管适能测试（最大摄氧量）。进行了统计分析（Cox回归、Kaplan - Meier生存分析）以检验ABSI与死亡率之间的关系。
在10年的随访期间，记录了10例死亡（6.7%）。ABSI（经年龄、吸烟、合并症和治疗因素调整后）是死亡率的独立预测指标（风险比 = 4.65，< 0.001）。较高的ABSI分数与较低的最大摄氧量（r = -0.190， = 0.017）和较高的收缩压（r = 0.262， = 0.001）相关。基于ABSI的预测模型显示出很强的辨别能力（曲线下面积 = 0.91）。
ABSI是身体活跃、非肥胖老年人10年死亡率的可靠预测指标，可能会改善临床实践中的风险分层。
