Tsiftsis Spyros, Štípková Zuzana, Rejmánek Marcel, Kindlmann Pavel
Department of Forest and Natural Environment Sciences, Democritus University of Thrace, 66132, Drama, Greece.
Global Change Research Institute AS CR, Bělidla 986/4a, 60300, Brno, Czech Republic.
Sci Rep. 2024 Oct 28;14(1):25778. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-76524-5.
Changes in climate and land use are the most often mentioned factors responsible for the current decline in species diversity. To reduce the effect of these factors, we need reliable predictions of future species distributions. This is usually done by utilizing species distribution models (SDMs) based on expected climate. Here we explore the accuracy of such projections: we use orchid (Orchidaceae) recordings and environmental (mainly climatic) data from the years 1901-1950 in SDMs to predict maps of potential species distributions in 1980-2014. This should enable us to compare the predictions of species distributions in 1980-2014, based on records of species distribution in the years 1901-1950, with real data in the 1980-2014 period. We found that the predictions of the SDMs often differ from reality in this experiment. The results clearly indicate that SDM predictions of future species distributions as a reaction to climate change must be treated with caution.
气候和土地利用变化是导致当前物种多样性下降最常被提及的因素。为减少这些因素的影响，我们需要对未来物种分布进行可靠预测。这通常通过利用基于预期气候的物种分布模型（SDM）来完成。在此，我们探究此类预测的准确性：我们在物种分布模型中使用1901年至1950年的兰花（兰科）记录和环境（主要是气候）数据来预测1980年至2014年潜在物种分布地图。这应使我们能够将基于1901年至1950年物种分布记录对1980年至2014年物种分布的预测与1980年至2014年期间的实际数据进行比较。我们发现在该实验中，物种分布模型的预测常常与现实不符。结果清楚地表明，对于作为气候变化反应的未来物种分布的物种分布模型预测必须谨慎对待。
