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阅读中的预测:可预测性效应、其理论意义及其他方面的综述

Prediction in reading: A review of predictability effects, their theoretical implications, and beyond.

作者信息

Wong Roslyn, Reichle Erik D, Veldre Aaron

机构信息

School of Psychological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia.

Graduate School of Health, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, Australia.

出版信息

Psychon Bull Rev. 2025 Jun;32(3):973-1006. doi: 10.3758/s13423-024-02588-z. Epub 2024 Oct 31.

Abstract

Historically, prediction during reading has been considered an inefficient and cognitively expensive processing mechanism given the inherently generative nature of language, which allows upcoming text to unfold in an infinite number of possible ways. This article provides an accessible and comprehensive review of the psycholinguistic research that, over the past 40 or so years, has investigated whether readers are capable of generating predictions during reading, typically via experiments on the effects of predictability (i.e., how well a word can be predicted from its prior context). Five theoretically important issues are addressed: What is the best measure of predictability? What is the functional relationship between predictability and processing difficulty? What stage(s) of processing does predictability affect? Are predictability effects ubiquitous? What processes do predictability effects actually reflect? Insights from computational models of reading about how predictability manifests itself to facilitate the reading of text are also discussed. This review concludes by arguing that effects of predictability can, to a certain extent, be taken as demonstrating evidence that prediction is an important but flexible component of real-time language comprehension, in line with broader predictive accounts of cognitive functioning. However, converging evidence, especially from concurrent eye-tracking and brain-imaging methods, is necessary to refine theories of prediction.

摘要

从历史上看,鉴于语言固有的生成性,即允许后续文本以无数种可能的方式展开,阅读过程中的预测一直被认为是一种低效且认知成本高昂的处理机制。本文对心理语言学研究进行了通俗易懂且全面的综述,这些研究在过去约40年里探讨了读者在阅读过程中是否能够进行预测,通常是通过关于可预测性影响的实验(即一个词从其前文语境中被预测的程度)。文中讨论了五个理论上重要的问题:可预测性的最佳衡量标准是什么?可预测性与处理难度之间的功能关系是什么?可预测性影响处理的哪些阶段?可预测性影响是否普遍存在?可预测性影响实际上反映了哪些过程?还讨论了阅读计算模型中关于可预测性如何表现以促进文本阅读的见解。本文综述最后指出,可预测性的影响在一定程度上可被视为证明预测是实时语言理解的一个重要但灵活的组成部分的证据,这与更广泛的认知功能预测性解释一致。然而,需要趋同的证据,尤其是来自同步眼动追踪和脑成像方法的证据,来完善预测理论。

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