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理解因疫苗犹豫而导致的传染病的波动。

Understanding the oscillations of an epidemic due to vaccine hesitancy.

机构信息

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30303, USA.

Center for Soft Matter and Biological Physics, Department of Physics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.

出版信息

Math Biosci Eng. 2024 Aug 9;21(8):6829-6846. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2024299.

Abstract

Vaccine hesitancy threatens to reverse the progress in tackling vaccine-preventable diseases. We used an $ SIS $ model with a game theory model for vaccination and parameters from the COVID-19 pandemic to study how vaccine hesitancy impacts epidemic dynamics. The system showed three asymptotic behaviors: total rejection of vaccinations, complete acceptance, and oscillations. With increasing fear of infection, stable endemic states become periodic oscillations. Our results suggest that managing fear of infection relative to vaccination is vital to successful mass vaccinations.

摘要

疫苗犹豫有可能使应对疫苗可预防疾病方面取得的进展发生逆转。我们使用了一种带有疫苗接种博弈论模型的 SIS 模型,并使用了 COVID-19 大流行的参数来研究疫苗犹豫如何影响传染病动态。该系统显示了三种渐近行为:完全拒绝接种、完全接受和振荡。随着对感染的恐惧增加,稳定的地方病状态会变成周期性的振荡。我们的研究结果表明,管理相对于接种疫苗的感染恐惧对于成功的大规模接种至关重要。

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