Szabó Lilla, Halmai Luca Adél, Ladányi Erzsébet, Garcia Sanchez Juan Jose, Barone Salvatore, Cabrera Claudia, Retat Lise, Webber Laura, Wittmann István, Laczy Boglárka
Medical and Market Access, AstraZeneca Ltd., Budapest, Hungary.
Tritonlife Nephrology Center, Miskolc, Hungary.
Front Nephrol. 2024 Oct 18;4:1458607. doi: 10.3389/fneph.2024.1458607. eCollection 2024.
The programme implemented a microsimulation modelling approach to project the clinical and economic burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD) between 2024 and 2027 in Hungary.
Using the peer-reviewed microsimulation, a virtual Hungarian population was generated that was derived from national records, local demographic data and published epidemiological data. These inputs defined the likelihood of a change in health state for each individual as they progressed through the model in annual increments. Individual CKD status, including disease progression, cardiorenal complications and associated costs, was tracked annually to generate the population-level projections of the clinical and economic burden of CKD.
By 2027, people with CKD were projected to constitute 13.3% of the Hungarian national population. The prevalence of heart failure, myocardial infarction and stroke in people with CKD were projected to remain consistently high, reaching 323 447, 69 188 and 120 118 by 2027, respectively. Kidney replacement therapy cases were predicted to remain high at 20 515 in 2024 and 22 325 in 2027, with associated costs increasing from 71.4 billion HUF in 2024 to 79.6 billion HUF in 2027. Total annual healthcare costs associated with treating CKD were projected to constitute 5.4% of the overall national healthcare budget in 2027.
demonstrates that the future burden of CKD in Hungary will be substantial unless current management strategies change. The high prevalence of undiagnosed CKD and associated cardiorenal complications highlight the urgent need for policy interventions focused on early diagnosis and timely intervention to mitigate the future burden of CKD.
该项目采用微观模拟建模方法，预测2024年至2027年匈牙利慢性肾脏病（CKD）的临床和经济负担。
使用经过同行评审的微观模拟，生成了一个虚拟的匈牙利人口，该人口来自国家记录、当地人口数据和已发表的流行病学数据。这些输入定义了每个个体在以年度增量在模型中推进时健康状态变化的可能性。每年跟踪个体的CKD状态，包括疾病进展、心肾并发症和相关成本，以生成CKD临床和经济负担的人群水平预测。
到2027年，预计CKD患者将占匈牙利全国人口的13.3%。预计CKD患者中心力衰竭、心肌梗死和中风的患病率将持续居高不下，到2027年分别达到323447例、69188例和120118例。预计肾脏替代治疗病例将保持高位，2024年为20515例，2027年为22325例，相关成本从2024年的714亿匈牙利福林增加到2027年的796亿匈牙利福林。预计2027年与治疗CKD相关的年度医疗总费用将占国家医疗总预算的5.4%。
表明除非改变当前的管理策略，否则匈牙利CKD的未来负担将相当大。未确诊的CKD和相关心肾并发症的高患病率凸显了迫切需要采取政策干预措施，重点是早期诊断和及时干预，以减轻CKD的未来负担。
