Reeping Paul M, Laqueur Hannah S, Kagawa Rose M C
Department of Emergency Medicine, UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program, UC Davis, Sacramento, CA, USA.
California Firearm Violence Research Center, Sacramento, CA, USA.
J Urban Health. 2024 Nov 6. doi: 10.1007/s11524-024-00928-x.
To date, there have been no peer-reviewed studies in the United States estimating the impact of gun-free zone policies in alcohol-serving establishments on rates of firearm violence in and around such establishments. In this study, we utilized a cross-sectional design to estimate the impact of Texas's 51% alcohol law, which prohibits the carrying of firearms in establishments that generate over half of their revenue from alcohol sales. The analysis focused on the difference in shooting incidents in and around establishments with and without firearm carrying prohibitions in 2021 and 2022. After adjusting for establishment type (bar/restaurant), alcohol sales volume, census tract level demographic factors, and the number of nearby restaurants and bars, results indicated that gun-prohibiting bars experienced significantly fewer shootings compared to those that allowed guns. Specifically, establishments that were gun-prohibited had 37% fewer shootings within 50 m than those that were gun-allowing, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 60% fewer to 0.2% fewer. This association was more prominent in bars than in restaurants. The protective association with gun-prohibited status diminished with increased distance from the establishments; results were not significant at 100 m. Our study findings align with research suggesting that gun-free zones can reduce firearm violence. However, future studies using quasi-experimental designs that can better support causal inference are needed to support such a conclusion, as are studies exploring the efficacy of such policies in various settings and over longer periods.
迄今为止，美国尚无经过同行评审的研究评估在提供酒精饮料的场所实施无枪区政策对这些场所及其周边地区枪支暴力发生率的影响。在本研究中，我们采用横断面设计来评估德克萨斯州的51%酒精法的影响，该法律禁止在酒精销售额占总收入一半以上的场所携带枪支。分析聚焦于2021年和2022年有枪支携带禁令和无禁令的场所及其周边地区枪击事件的差异。在对场所类型（酒吧/餐厅）、酒精销售量、普查区层面的人口统计学因素以及附近餐厅和酒吧的数量进行调整后，结果表明，与允许持枪的场所相比，禁止持枪的酒吧发生的枪击事件明显更少。具体而言，被禁止持枪的场所周围50米内的枪击事件比允许持枪的场所少37%，95%置信区间为少60%至少0.2%。这种关联在酒吧中比在餐厅中更为显著。与禁止持枪状态的保护关联随着与场所距离的增加而减弱；在100米处结果不显著。我们的研究结果与表明无枪区可减少枪支暴力的研究一致。然而，需要未来使用能更好支持因果推断的准实验设计的研究来支持这一结论，探索此类政策在各种环境和更长时期内效果的研究也同样如此。
