Hans Zainab, Lee Daniel B, Zimmerman Marc A, Wiebe Douglas J
All authors are with the Institute of Firearm Injury Prevention, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. Marc A. Zimmerman and Douglas J. Wiebe are also with the School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor.
Am J Public Health. 2025 Feb;115(2):161-169. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2024.307891. Epub 2024 Nov 7.
To examine whether, through interactions with preexisting socioeconomic status vulnerabilities, the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated exposure to firearm violence among communities with a legacy of redlining (i.e., grading the creditworthiness of neighborhoods based on their sociodemographic composition). We used an exogenous population threshold whereby the Home Owners Loan Corporation graded neighborhoods only in US cities with populations of more than 40 000 and used a difference-in-difference strategy to examine the evolution of fatal firearm incidents between 2017 and October 2022. After the COVID-19 pandemic began, fatal firearm violence increased significantly in low-graded neighborhoods that the Home Owners Loan Corporation had deemed risky for mortgage lending. The effect held consistently across various model specifications. Social and environmental constructs can interact in a complex manner to compound disadvantage and exacerbate the consequences of negative shocks for marginalized communities. Home Owners Loan Corporation policies contributed to widening racial disparities in firearm violence, highlighting the need for reinvestment in marginalized communities to keep future shocks from exacerbating vulnerability to adverse outcomes. (. 2025;115(2):161-169. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2024.307891).
为了研究新冠疫情是否通过与既有的社会经济地位脆弱性相互作用,加剧了那些有红线划定历史(即根据社区的社会人口构成对其信用价值进行分级)的社区遭受枪支暴力的风险。我们采用了一个外部人口阈值,即房主贷款公司仅对美国人口超过4万的城市中的社区进行分级,并使用了差分策略来研究2017年至2022年10月期间致命枪支事件的演变。新冠疫情开始后,房主贷款公司认为有抵押贷款风险的低等级社区中,致命枪支暴力事件显著增加。在各种模型设定下,这一效应都持续存在。社会和环境结构可能以复杂的方式相互作用,使不利状况加剧,并加重负面冲击对边缘化社区的影响。房主贷款公司的政策导致枪支暴力方面的种族差距扩大,这凸显了对边缘化社区进行再投资的必要性,以防止未来的冲击加剧对不良后果的脆弱性。(. 2025;115(2):161 - 169. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2024.307891)