Public Health Division, School of Health Scienses, Central Michigan University, Mount Pleasant, MI, United States.
Higher School of Economics, Centre for Health Economics, Management, and Policy, National Research University, Moscow, Russian Federation.
JMIR Form Res. 2024 Nov 15;8:e56006. doi: 10.2196/56006.
Studying illicit drug circulation and its effects on population health is complicated due to the criminalization of trade and consumption. Illicit drug markets have evolved with IT, moving digital to the "darknet." Previous research has analyzed darknet market listings and customer reviews. Research tools include public health surveys and medical reports but lack neutral data on drugs' spread and impact. This study fills this gap with an analysis of the volume of drugs traded on the darknet market.
We aimed to use the dark web data and officially published indicators to identify the most vulnerable regions of Russia and the correlations between the pairs of variables to measure how illicit drug trade can affect population well-being.
We web-parsed the Hydra darknet drug marketplace using Python code. The dataset encompassed 3045 individual sellers marketing 6721 unique products via 58,563 distinct postings, each representing specific quantities sold in different Russian regions during 2019. In the second stage, we collected 31 variables from official sources to compare officially collected data with darknet data about amounts and types of selling drugs in every 85 regions of Russia. The health-related data were obtained from official published sources-statistical yearbooks. Maps, diagrams, correlation matrixes, and applied observational statistical methods were used.
In 2019, a minimum of 124 kilograms of drugs circulated daily in small batches on the Russian darknet. Cannabis dominated the market, being 10 times more prevalent than opiates, and cannabis products' higher availability in the region is correlated with a lower incidence of opiate overdoses. The "grams of opiates in the region" variable is significantly correlated with drug overdose deaths (r=.41; P=.003), HIV-positive cases due to drug use (r=.51; P=.002), and drug court convictions in Russia (r=.39; P=.004). The study identified significant correlations between opiate sales on the darknet and higher rates of HIV among injection drug users (r=.47; P=.003). Conversely, regions with higher cannabis sales exhibited significant negative correlations with indicators of harmful drug use (r=-.52; P=.002) and its prevalence (r=-.49; P=.001). These findings suggest regional variations in drug sales on the darknet may be associated with differing public health outcomes. These indicators accurately reflect regional drug issues, though some official statistics may be incomplete or biased.
Our findings point to varying levels of risk associated with different types of drugs sold on the darknet, but further research is needed to explore these relationships in greater depth. The study's findings highlight the importance of considering regional variations in darknet drug sales when developing public health strategies. The significant correlations between drug sales data and public health indicators suggest that region-specific interventions could be more effective in addressing the diverse challenges posed by illicit drug use.
由于毒品交易和消费的刑事化，研究非法毒品流通及其对人口健康的影响变得复杂。非法毒品市场随着信息技术的发展已经转移到了“暗网”。之前的研究分析了暗网市场的清单和客户评论。研究工具包括公共卫生调查和医疗报告，但缺乏关于毒品传播和影响的中立数据。本研究通过分析暗网市场上的毒品交易量来填补这一空白。
我们旨在使用暗网数据和官方公布的指标来确定俄罗斯最脆弱的地区，并测量非法毒品贸易如何影响人口福祉，以确定两者之间的相关性。
我们使用 Python 代码对 Hydra 暗网毒品市场进行了网络解析。该数据集包括 3045 名个体卖家，通过 58563 个不同的帖子销售了 6721 种不同的产品，每个帖子代表 2019 年在俄罗斯不同地区销售的特定数量。在第二阶段，我们从官方来源收集了 31 个变量，以比较官方收集的关于俄罗斯 85 个地区销售毒品数量和类型的数据与暗网数据。健康相关数据来自官方发布的来源-统计年鉴。使用了地图、图表、相关矩阵和应用的观察性统计方法。
2019 年，俄罗斯暗网每天至少有 124 公斤的毒品以小批量流通。大麻占据了市场主导地位，是阿片类药物的 10 倍，该地区大麻产品的供应量较高与阿片类药物过量的发病率较低相关。“该地区的阿片类药物克数”变量与药物过量死亡（r=.41；P=.003）、因药物使用而感染 HIV 的案例（r=.51；P=.002）和俄罗斯毒品法庭定罪（r=.39；P=.004）显著相关。研究发现，暗网阿片类药物销售与注射吸毒者中 HIV 感染率较高（r=.47；P=.003）之间存在显著相关性。相反，大麻销售量较高的地区与有害药物使用（r=-.52；P=.002）及其流行率（r=-.49；P=.001）呈显著负相关。这些发现表明，暗网毒品销售的地区差异可能与不同的公共卫生结果有关。这些指标准确反映了地区毒品问题，但一些官方统计数据可能不完整或存在偏差。
我们的研究结果表明，不同类型的毒品在暗网上的销售风险程度不同，但需要进一步研究以更深入地探讨这些关系。本研究的结果强调了在制定公共卫生策略时考虑暗网毒品销售地区差异的重要性。药物销售数据与公共卫生指标之间的显著相关性表明，针对特定地区的干预措施可能更有效地应对非法药物使用带来的各种挑战。
