1990年至2021年中国肌肉骨骼疾病负担的时间趋势及2021年至2030年的预测

Temporal trends in the burden of musculoskeletal diseases in China from 1990 to 2021 and predictions for 2021 to 2030.

作者信息

Wang Yunfa, Chen Bofan, Liu Xinyue, Zeng Haimin, Chen Bin, Wang Zhilin, Yang Qingpiao, Peng Jie, Hao Liang

机构信息

Department of Orthopedics, The Second Affiliated hospital, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, 330006 Nanchang, China; The Second Clinical Medical College, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, 330006 Nanchang, China.

出版信息

Bone. 2025 Feb;191:117332. doi: 10.1016/j.bone.2024.117332. Epub 2024 Nov 17.

DOI:10.1016/j.bone.2024.117332

PMID:39551255

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Musculoskeletal (MSK) diseases represent a significant global public health challenge. Conducting comprehensive research on MSK diseases in China holds profound implications for public health.

METHODS

This study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 (GBD 2021) to analyze the incidence rate, prevalence rate, mortality rate, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs) of MSK diseases in China from 1990 to 2021. Trends were evaluated using annual percentage change (APC), average annual percentage change (AAPC), and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Future disease trends were predicted using the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model.

RESULTS

China had the highest number of DALYs cases globally, totaling 30.4194 million. Low back pain (LBP) represented the largest burden, while hand osteoarthritis exhibited the fastest growth. Differences in disease burden were observed across various genders and age groups. Predictions indicate that between 2021 and 2030, the age-standardized DALYs rate in China will increase annually, reaching 1779.08 per 100,000 population by 2030. Environmental (occupational) factors had the most significant impact on the age-standardized DALYs rate, whereas renal dysfunction had the least impact. The SDI showed a moderately strong positive correlation with the age-standardized DALYs rate of MSK diseases.

CONCLUSION

Over the past 20 years, the prevalence of MSK diseases in China has experienced a slight increase, while other epidemiological burden indicators have shown a downward trend. Projections indicate that the overall disease burden of MSK in China will continue to rise over the next decade, underscoring the need for early intervention strategies. Moreover, substantial differences in MSK disease burden across genders and age groups highlight the importance of developing targeted policy interventions to mitigate this burden.

摘要

背景

肌肉骨骼疾病是一项重大的全球公共卫生挑战。在中国开展肌肉骨骼疾病的综合研究对公共卫生具有深远意义。

方法

本研究利用2021年全球疾病负担（GBD 2021）的数据，分析了1990年至2021年中国肌肉骨骼疾病的发病率、患病率、死亡率、伤残调整生命年（DALYs）、带病生存年数（YLDs）和生命损失年数（YLLs）。使用年度百分比变化（APC）、平均年度百分比变化（AAPC）和估计年度百分比变化（EAPC）评估趋势。使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型预测未来疾病趋势。

结果

中国的伤残调整生命年病例数全球最多，总计3041.94万例。腰痛（LBP）负担最大，而手部骨关节炎增长最快。不同性别和年龄组的疾病负担存在差异。预测表明，2021年至2030年期间，中国年龄标准化伤残调整生命年率将逐年上升，到2030年将达到每10万人1779.08例。环境（职业）因素对年龄标准化伤残调整生命年率影响最大，而肾功能不全影响最小。社会人口指数（SDI）与肌肉骨骼疾病的年龄标准化伤残调整生命年率呈中度强正相关。