Mata May Anne E, Escosio Rey Audie S, Rosero El Veena Grace A, Viernes Jhunas Paul T, Anonuevo Loreniel E, Hernandez Bryan S, Addawe Joel M, Addawe Rizavel C, Pilar-Arceo Carlene P C, Mendoza Victoria May P, de Los Reyes Aurelio A
Mindanao Center for Disease Watch and Analytics (DiWA), University of the Philippines Mindanao, Tugbok District, Davao City, 8000, Philippines.
Interdisciplinary Applied Modeling (IAM) Laboratory, University of the Philippines Mindanao, Tugbok District, Davao City, 8000, Philippines.
Heliyon. 2024 Oct 17;10(21):e39330. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e39330. eCollection 2024 Nov 15.
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted communities worldwide, and effective management strategies are critical to reduce transmission rates and minimize the impact of the disease. In this study, we modeled and analyzed the COVID-19 transmission dynamics and derived relevant epidemiological values for three regions of the Philippines, namely, the National Capital Region (NCR), Davao City, and Baguio City, under different community quarantine implementations. The unique features and differences of these regions-of-interest were accounted for in simulating the disease spread and in estimating key epidemiological parameters fitted to the reported COVID-19 cases. Results support the robustness of the model formulated and provides insights into the effect of the government's implemented intervention protocols. With a forecasting feature, this modeling framework is beneficial for science-based decision support, policy making, and assessment for recent and future pandemics wherever regions-of-interest.
新冠疫情对全球社区产生了重大影响，有效的管理策略对于降低传播率和最小化疾病影响至关重要。在本研究中，我们对菲律宾三个地区，即国家首都地区（NCR）、达沃市和碧瑶市，在不同社区隔离措施实施情况下的新冠病毒传播动态进行了建模和分析，并得出了相关流行病学数值。在模拟疾病传播以及估计拟合报告的新冠病例的关键流行病学参数时，考虑了这些感兴趣地区的独特特征和差异。结果支持了所制定模型的稳健性，并为政府实施的干预方案的效果提供了见解。该建模框架具有预测功能，有利于基于科学的决策支持、政策制定以及对任何感兴趣地区近期和未来大流行的评估。
