Zhang Zhe, Chen Lei, Li Jing, Ding Shengzhen
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Zhaoqing University, Guangdong, 526061, China.
Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, 519000, Guangdong, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Nov 18;14(1):28459. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-78831-3.
This paper employs two-way fixed effects models, mediation models and spatial panel models to examine the impact of digital economy development on carbon emission intensity in 72 countries from 2013 to 2020 using TIMG index as the proxy variable of digital economic development. The results of this paper show that (1) there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the development of the digital economy and the carbon emissions in various countries. The development of digital economy first has a positive effect on carbon emissions, and then, its impact turns negative after it reaches a designated inflection point. (2) The results of the mechanism analysis show that the development of the digital economy can reduce carbon emissions by promoting industrial upgrading, while it could have an inverted U-shaped nonlinear effect on carbon emissions through energy efficiency. (3) The development of a country's digital economy may have a significantly inverted U-shaped spatial spillover effect on neighboring countries. This paper provides reference for countries to formulate carbon emission reduction policies and promote the coordinated development of digital economy and environmental protection.
本文采用双向固定效应模型、中介模型和空间面板模型，以TIMG指数作为数字经济发展的代理变量，考察2013年至2020年期间72个国家数字经济发展对碳排放强度的影响。本文的研究结果表明：（1）数字经济发展与各国碳排放之间存在倒U型关系。数字经济发展首先对碳排放产生正向影响，随后在达到指定拐点后其影响变为负向。（2）机制分析结果表明，数字经济发展可通过推动产业升级来减少碳排放，而其通过能源效率对碳排放可能产生倒U型非线性效应。（3）一国数字经济发展可能对邻国产生显著的倒U型空间溢出效应。本文为各国制定碳排放减排政策以及促进数字经济与环境保护的协调发展提供了参考。
