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通过分岔预测增强微分博弈中的战略决策。

Enhancing strategic decision-making in differential games through bifurcation prediction.

作者信息

García Pérez Jesús, Epureanu Bogdan

机构信息

Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, 48109, USA.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2024 Nov 22;14(1):28981. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-75848-6.

Abstract

Qualitative changes can occur in the dynamics of nonlinear systems even for small parameter variations. Such changes are manifestations of bifurcation in dynamical systems. In the context of differential game theory, bifurcations offer insights into the underlying mechanisms driving strategic interactions and identify transitions between different types of behavior. Such critical transitions are tipping points that can dramatically change the outcomes of the game. This work explores the possibility of predicting such qualitative shifts, including supercritical Hopf bifurcations, before they occur using a data-driven forecasting technique. This concept is demonstrated for an attacker-defender game in a limited resource scenario and for an active cybersecurity defense game. The time histories of the system dynamics as it approaches a bifurcation allow one player to detect the existence of bifurcations. This capability provides that player insights into the dynamics of the game and potential defense mechanisms in resource-constrained scenarios.

摘要

即使参数变化很小,非线性系统的动态特性也可能发生质变。这种变化是动态系统中分歧的表现。在微分博弈论的背景下,分歧有助于深入了解驱动战略互动的潜在机制,并识别不同行为类型之间的转变。这种关键转变是临界点,可能会极大地改变博弈的结果。这项工作探索了在超临界霍普夫分歧等质变发生之前,使用数据驱动的预测技术进行预测的可能性。这一概念在有限资源场景下的攻防博弈以及主动网络安全防御博弈中得到了验证。当系统动态特性接近分歧时的时间历程,能让一方玩家检测到分歧的存在。这种能力为该玩家提供了对博弈动态特性以及资源受限场景下潜在防御机制的深入了解。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1fa3/11584636/72b05760b978/41598_2024_75848_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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