Fan Xinyue, Liu Bin, Yang Xiaoyi, Wang Kai, Wu Dan, Zhou Zhongli
College of Management Science, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu, 610059, China.
Geomathematics Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu University of Technology), Chengdu, 610059, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Nov 25;14(1):29122. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-80416-z.
Studying the correlation between resilience and carbon emissions in resource-based cities (RBCs) holds considerable significance for advancing regional sustainable development. Herein, by taking 18 RBCs in southwestern China as the research object, a carbon emission impact index system and an urban resilience index system were constructed. The resilience was quantified from the three dimensions of "resources - ecology - society", and divided into high, medium, and low categories. Besides, the LSTM model was utilized to simulate carbon peak scenarios in different types of cities and analyze the specific path to achieve low-carbon development. As indicated by the research results, between 2005 and 2020, the resilience and carbon emissions of Southwest China's RBCs presented fluctuations and showed an upward trend. Scenario simulation suggested that highly resilient cities were poised for sustainable development and necessitated a coordinated government structure; moderately resilient cities should prioritize clean energy development; and cities with low resilience should pursue steady growth, market expansion, and enhanced communication. Overall, this study provides support for the low-carbon development of RBCs.
研究资源型城市的韧性与碳排放之间的相关性对推动区域可持续发展具有重要意义。在此，以中国西南地区的18个资源型城市为研究对象，构建了碳排放影响指标体系和城市韧性指标体系。从“资源—生态—社会”三个维度对韧性进行量化，并分为高、中、低三类。此外，利用长短期记忆模型（LSTM）模拟不同类型城市的碳达峰情景，并分析实现低碳发展的具体路径。研究结果表明，2005年至2020年，中国西南地区资源型城市的韧性和碳排放呈现波动且呈上升趋势。情景模拟表明，高韧性城市具备可持续发展的条件，需要协调的政府架构；中等韧性城市应优先发展清洁能源；低韧性城市应追求稳定增长、扩大市场并加强沟通。总体而言，本研究为资源型城市的低碳发展提供了支持。
