One-Year Risk Prediction of Elevated Serum Uric Acid Levels in Older Adults: A Longitudinal Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE

To develop and externally validate a nomogram to predict elevated serum uric acid (SUA) levels in older adults.

STUDY DESIGN

This is a longitudinal Chinese cohort study.

METHODS

A cohort of 2788 older adults was established at Huadong Hospital, followed-up for at least one year, and screened for risk factors for elevated SUA levels. A logistic regression model was built to predict elevated SUA, and its performance was validated.

RESULTS

The risk prediction model showed good discrimination ability in both the development cohort (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.82; 95% confidence interval (CI) =0.790.86) and the external validation cohort (AUC=0.76; 95% CI=0.700.82). The model was adequately calibrated, and the predictions correlated with the observed outcome (  = 6.36,  = 0.607). Men were more prone to elevated SUA levels than women were, and a baseline SUA level ≥360 μmol/L was a common risk factor for both males and females. Proteinuria status was an additional risk factor for males, whereas a baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)<60 mL/min·1.73 m and diabetes status were additional risk factors for females.

CONCLUSION

The externally validated nomogram, which is predictive of elevated SUA in older adults, might aid in the detection of individual diseases, the development of preventive interventions and clinical decision-making.