Evaluating the effectiveness of badger vaccination combined with cattle test-and-removal in managing Bovine Tuberculosis: Insights from a two-host and multi-route transmission model.

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) has a complex infection ecology and is difficult to control in many countries, including Ireland. For many years, the Irish national bTB eradication programme relied on cattle-based control measures, including test-and-removal with related movement restrictions. In the early 2000s, badger culling was added as a part of the control measure in the national programme. As badgers are protected animals under Wildlife Acts, making culling undesirable, this practice is now progressively being replaced by badger vaccination. However, it is unclear whether badger vaccination, in combination with the cattle test-and-removal and movement restriction, is sufficient to eradicate bTB, or whether additional measures will be needed. Assessing the impact of badger vaccination on reducing bTB in cattle is complex due to the involvement of multiple hosts and transmission routes. Key contributors include transmission to and from wildlife (e.g., European badger, Meles meles), the persistence of Mycobacterium bovis in the environment, and - due to imperfect diagnostic tests - the movement of infected cattle and residual infection in the herd. Understanding of relative contribution of these infectious sources is a key knowledge gap. This study aims to assess the impact of badger vaccination, in addition to cattle test-and-removal and movement restriction, on bTB eradication at a regional level and to assess whether additional interventions are needed. Additionally, we investigate the contribution of several transmission mechanisms such as, local cattle, residual infection, badgers and introduced cattle on the transmission of bTB at the level of both the individual and the herd. To achieve this, we developed a metapopulation model that includes each of the above-mentioned transmission mechanisms for the Kilkenny badger vaccination trial area. The model incorporates within-herd transmission for cattle and within-territory transmission for badgers, and also transmission between herds, both via cattle trade movements and via overlapping badger territories. Our results show that cattle-to-cattle transmission contributes most to new cattle infections at the individual animal (cattle) level, while breakdowns at the herd level usually involve multiple routes. Badger vaccination, when combined with cattle test-and-removal programme, may not be sufficient to achieve eradication in this region. We highlight the need for additional interventions that target cattle, badger, and movement to form a comprehensive intervention strategy, including cattle vaccination, improve farm biosecurity, badger vaccination and risk-based trading.