Li Weihao, Ouyang Hanqi, Zhao Ziyu, Wang Liying, Meng Weiwei, Zhou Sanji, Yang Guojing
NHC Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Control, School of Tropical Medicine, Hainan Medical University (Hainan Academy of Medical Sciences), Haikou, Hainan, 571199, China; School of Public Health, Hainan Medical University (Hainan Academy of Medical Sciences), Haikou, Hainan 571199, China.
NHC Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Control, School of Tropical Medicine, Hainan Medical University (Hainan Academy of Medical Sciences), Haikou, Hainan, 571199, China.
Acta Trop. 2024 Dec;260:107475. doi: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2024.107475. Epub 2024 Nov 30.
Brucellosis remains a major public health challenge in China and globally. This study analyzed long-term trends in brucellosis incidence in China from 2006 to 2020, assessed the effects of age, period, and birth cohort, and projected future incidence up to 2030. Data on brucellosis were obtained from the Data-center of China Public Health Science, and temporal trends in incidence rates were analyzed using joinpoint regression, while an age-period-cohort model evaluated the effects of age, period, and cohort. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied for future projections. From 2006 to 2020, 586,371 brucellosis cases were reported, with an upward trend in age-standardized incidence rates for both males and females, showing average annual percent changes of 3.37 % and 4.61 %, respectively. The age-period-cohort model revealed that age, period, and cohort all influenced incidence, with males facing higher rates. High-risk groups were identified among those aged 50-84, particularly in the 65-69 age range, where incidence was highest and showed the most significant annual increase. Period risk initially rose then declined, while later-born cohorts had higher risks. Projections indicate a continued rise in brucellosis incidence. Targeted prevention and control measures are recommended, especially for older adults and males.
布鲁氏菌病在中国乃至全球仍然是一项重大的公共卫生挑战。本研究分析了2006年至2020年中国布鲁氏菌病发病率的长期趋势，评估了年龄、时期和出生队列的影响，并预测了截至2030年的未来发病率。布鲁氏菌病数据来自中国公共卫生科学数据中心，发病率的时间趋势采用Joinpoint回归分析，而年龄-时期-队列模型评估了年龄、时期和队列的影响。应用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型进行未来预测。2006年至2020年，共报告586371例布鲁氏菌病病例，男性和女性的年龄标准化发病率均呈上升趋势，平均年变化率分别为3.37%和4.61%。年龄-时期-队列模型显示，年龄、时期和队列均对发病率有影响，男性发病率更高。在50-84岁人群中确定了高危人群，特别是在65-69岁年龄组，发病率最高且年增幅最为显著。时期风险最初上升后下降，而较晚出生的队列风险更高。预测表明布鲁氏菌病发病率将持续上升。建议采取有针对性的预防和控制措施，特别是针对老年人和男性。
