Rincon Diego F, Gutierrez-Illan Javier, Crowder David W
Department of Entomology, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA.
Corporación Colombiana de Investigación Agropecuaria (AGROSAVIA), Centro de Investigación Tibaitatá, Mosquera, Colombia.
Pest Manag Sci. 2025 Apr;81(4):1851-1859. doi: 10.1002/ps.8585. Epub 2024 Dec 2.
Efficacy of insecticides is often determined from apparent yield loses due to a target pest. However, pests can affect yields even when controls work as expected. Further, most pest populations are monitored through adult counts without procedures to assess dynamics of immature stages. Here, we propose a framework to assess the efficacy of control treatments from adult counts in non-experimental setups based on the shifts in temporal patterns of adult emergence caused during the residual period of treatments applied to kill immatures. We use phenology models scaled to field counts to track the stage structure of pest populations across a season and produce reference population trajectories with and without the treatment. Field-collected trajectories are then classified as with or without an effective control through a time-sequential probability ratio test. The method was evaluated using pheromone trap captures of codling moth, Cydia pomonella, and four of the most widely implemented treatment programs in apple and pear orchards.
Simulations revealed that when field-collected trajectories are classified as treated with a control, there is 70% chance that the treatment program is > 50% effective, or that the program is < 66% effective when field-collected trajectories are classified as untreated, provided the trajectories are made of ≥ 15 pheromone traps.
This framework is a powerful, evidence-based tool to optimize the selection of inputs and application protocols for pest control and could be applied to virtually any pest that can be sampled regularly and whose phenology can be modeled as a function of degree-days. © 2024 The Author(s). Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.
杀虫剂的功效通常根据目标害虫导致的明显产量损失来确定。然而，即使防治措施按预期发挥作用，害虫仍可能影响产量。此外，大多数害虫种群是通过成虫数量进行监测的，而没有评估未成熟阶段动态的程序。在此，我们提出一个框架，用于在非实验设置中根据成虫羽化时间模式的变化来评估防治处理的功效，这些变化是在用于杀死未成熟害虫的处理残留期内引起的。我们使用根据田间计数进行缩放的物候模型来跟踪一个季节内害虫种群的阶段结构，并生成有处理和无处理情况下的参考种群轨迹。然后通过时间序列概率比检验将实地收集的轨迹分类为有或没有有效防治。该方法使用苹果蠹蛾（Cydia pomonella）的性诱捕器捕获数据以及苹果和梨园中四个最广泛实施的处理方案进行了评估。
模拟结果表明，当将实地收集的轨迹分类为经过防治处理时，如果轨迹由≥15个性诱捕器组成，那么该处理方案有70%的可能性效果大于50%；或者当将实地收集的轨迹分类为未处理时，该方案有小于66%的可能性效果显著。
该框架是一种强大的、基于证据的工具，可用于优化害虫防治的投入选择和应用方案，并且几乎可以应用于任何能够定期采样且其物候可以根据度日进行建模的害虫。© 2024作者。《害虫管理科学》由约翰·威利父子有限公司代表化学工业协会出版。
